World Cycling

Quick Five: Stage 14

2010-07-18T11:10:00.002-04:00

1)Schleck and Contador think they have this in the bag. Watching them sit up off the back of the leaders' group today solely to track each other was ridiculous. That kind of riding can quite easily cost them the race - Menchov and Sanchez nearly made them pay dearly today, that pair could have taken thirty seconds or more and were unfortunate to only seize about fifteen. Schleck and Contador are the strongest men in the race, but that doesn't make winning automatic.

2)The French are having a cracking Tour. Four stage wins, a couple of days in yellow, and they've owned the polka-dot jersey...well, never mind with that last point (see #5). Even so, they have their best win haul in some time and those wins have been hard-fought ones as well. While it doesn't look like they'll win the Tour any time soon, at least they are seeing some success in their home race.

3)Alexander Vinokourov is the worst teammate ever. It's not news but it was emphasized today - instead of setting a vicious tempo, he attacked. Just like when he was at T-Mobile, the only way he knows how to race is to attack. It's very exciting and great to watch as a fan (although a bit less so now that he's been exposed as a cheat), but it can't be good for the leader he's supposed to be "pacing".

4)Dennis Menchov could win the Tour. I'm serious. He's about two and three-quarter minutes back, but if he can chip of a few more seconds from Schleck and Contador in the Pyrenees, which seems reasonable based on their tactics today, he could nick this in the final time trial. Menchov beat Contador by fifty seconds over a slightly shorter effort during the Dauphine, and that was a much hillier course that would have suited Contador more then Menchov. A minute and a half would not be an unreasonable time gain for the former Vuelta winner.

5)The King of the Mountains jersey is a joke. Charteau is quite clearly the only guy who cares about it at this point, and he's a thoroughly mediocre climber. It's a sad state of affairs when this guy is leading the KoM classification rather comfortably is plainly nowhere near the top level of the climbers.

Quick Five: Stages 11 & 12

2010-07-16T19:43:00.004-04:00

Apologies for the lack of a post yesterday - I was fried after work and went straight to bed.

1)We have a race. It was starting to look like the difficult mass-start stages would simply see Schleck and Contador keep each other in check, but the Astana captain shattered that today with his attack on the climb outside of Mende. Contador could probably have gone on to win the Tour in the final time trial by simply staying with Schleck, but he wants to win the race clearly, as he did last year and in 2007. He doesn't want to appear second-best on his favoured terrain of the mountains, and if he is as strong on Sunday as he was today, the end of that stage could be a cracker. However, Schleck was a bit slow to react and lost most of the ten seconds he conceded in the first meters of Contador's attack - it was hardly a comprehensive beating.

2)Mark Renshaw is a thug. The headbutt on Julian Dean was pretty bad, but check out what he did after Cavendish opened up the sprint - he closed the door very dangerously on Tyler Farrar and nearly pushed the Garmin rider into the barriers (thanks to my friend Kellen for pointing that one out). First, a totally unnecessary and dangerous headbutt, and then an equally dangerous maneuver that almost caused a very bad crash. A fully deserved disqualification all around.

3)It's a lot easier to tough things out when you're doped. Tyler Farrar tried to be the hard-man hero of the race, riding for a week with a fractured wrist, but found it too much to bear today. Unlike another American Tyler, Hamilton, Farrar's injury was a bit more serious in cycling terms, and (we hope) he wasn't nearly as juiced. Had he been, he should have picked up a couple of stage wins. For all of Hamilton's bravery and balls, his task was made much easier by the fact that he was substantially more doped than Farrar (again, I'm assuming here, but I think it's fair to make such an assumption).

4)Vintage Vino is gone. The old Vino would have won today's stage, teammate chasing him down or not. The old Vino would have hung with Contador and demanded the stage win. He is a hollow shell of a rider, and I couldn't be happier that he was overhauled before the line. As a former Vino fan who felt betrayed by him, I did not want to see a win for him and was pleasantly surprised that he got caught.

5)Petacchi will give Hushovd an excellent challenge for green. As I said on Wednesday, he looks to be in great form and picked up the green jersey after Stage 11. While he relinquished it to Hushovd today, he was up with the top riders through the first kilometer of the Monteé Laurent Jalabert, an incredible show for a big sprinter like him. Now that Mark Cavendish is without his lead-out man Renshaw, Petacchi should have a better shot at a third stage win tomorrow. He also looks a better bet to get over the small climb near the finish in a good position.

Quick Five: Stage 10

2010-07-14T19:27:00.003-04:00

1)Mark Cavendish cares about the green jersey. The biggest surprise of the day was seeing the "Manx Missile" flexing his calves for a mere ninth place. For a rider who sits up when it's clear the win has gone in a bunch sprint, it was rather uncharacteristic for him to put in the work for a few points. However, even though he picked up the best placing in the field, he's still forty points behind Thor Hushovd and will need to win almost every remaining flat stage to take the green jersey.

2)This is a very hard Tour. Every Tour has a few quiet stages, and today was one of those. However, the entire pack looked much more gassed - and probably a bit scared - than usual. In the break, too, the riders looked pretty tired. Aerts didn't even try to sprint for third place, and neither Paulinho nor Kiriyenka tried to attack before the sprint, even though it would have been a better move for the RadioShack man. The two brutal days in the Alps have tired out the field, and they are worried about the long stretch in the Pyrenees.

3)Alessandro Petacchi is a damn sight better than expected. Ale-Jet has pretty firmly established himself as the second-best sprinter in this year's Tour. While no one can catch Cavendish on his day, Petacchi's sprinting brain is significantly better and he's profited from that a couple of times. If he can survive the Pyrenees, he should be the biggest challenger to Hushovd for the green jersey.

4)French teams still base their tactics around getting on TV. That's the only sensible explanation for Nicolas Roche's attack today - why else would he have jumped out of the field and soloed about ten kilometers to the finish? Rémi Pauriol, too, had a go late on for no reason at all. Until the French teams stop focusing on publicity, they won't win anything more than a few stages in the Tour.

5)Concentration is still the most important mental attribute in cycling. Lost focus for a moment caused Kiriyenka to lose the stage today - once Paulinho had gapped him by almost two bike lengths, it would have required a Robbie McEwen-esque late burst to overhaul the Portuguese. And really, if you're going to focus for any part of the stage, it has to be when you're three hundred meters out in a two-up sprint.

Quick Five: Stage 9

2010-07-13T18:21:00.002-04:00

1)Brains still matter. Casar's stage win today was all about racing intelligence and good positioning. He knew how to take the finish and hit the front just at the right time, first through the corner and first over the line. Just like his last Tour stage win, it was based on making the right move, although this finish was much easier

2)This is not an old man's Tour, at least not for the GC. Evans and Lance have both suffered severely from the effects of crashes in the Alps, Klöden has had a few bad days and Basso isn't looking to sprightly. The only exception seems to be Christoph Moreau, who did a very good ride today, although he was towed in by the two strongest riders in the race.

3)Contador and Schleck are by far the strongest riders in the race. The two climbers have clearly shown that they are the top men in this Tour de France. None but each other can take their accelerations. Unfortunately for Schleck, he still doesn't have the kind of buffer over Contador to keep the yellow jersey through a long time trial. We have, however, seen some chinks in El Pistolero's armor, and Schleck will have plenty of opportunity to seek out and exploit them in the Pyrenees.

4)Sammy Sánchez is a top rider. For years we've seen him ride brilliantly in the Vuelta, but he has rarely animated races outside of his home country. Since his Olympic gold medal in Beijing, he's started to branch out a bit more, and this late bloomer could give a needed spark to the race in the final week. Watch out for him on the stage to Mende.

5)No good climber wants the polka-dot jersey. There's been no Virenque/Jalabert type long raid by a top mountain goat, and the GC men are still thoroughly uninterested in the King of the Mountains competition. As I've said for a long time, the only way to spice it up is by throwing in big (30 seconds to a minute) time bonuses at the top of climbs. The way things stand, a middling French rider looks like taking the polka-dots up to Paris.

Quick Five: Rest Day #1

2010-07-13T00:52:00.003-04:00

1)Andy Schleck looks good. Damn good. Great acceleration yesterday to gap Contador and the others, and a fantastic kick to outsprint Sammy Sanchez, who is a good finisher. This kid is on form.

2)Lance is done. Yet another great champion has raced a Tour too many and it has proved his undoing - Armstrong at Morzine-Avoriaz was reminiscent of Indurain at Les Arcs or Merckx after Pra Loup. He has a great chance, now, to win the KOM classification, but he won't take it because he's too proud.

3)Contador has not convinced me. After a phenomenal job of work by Navarro on the final climb, he didn't attack, and didn't respond well when Schleck blasted off the front. The Contador of the last three years would have bridged that gap, sprinted past and won the stage.

4)Cav is done - no, he's back. After - God forbid! - four stages without a win, Mark Cavendish picked up a couple of stages as we expected. However, his pride has been his undoing in the green jersey, as he hasn't sprinted for the placings when it's been clear that the victory has gone. He could still win the maillot vert, but it will take some poor showing by Thor and several more stage wins - which are not guaranteed if Petacchi can get over the mountains.

5)Nobody knows tactics any more. Wiggins murdered his team yesterday for absolutely no reason at all, and then got dropped on the final climb. Garmin have set-up Cavendish at least once, probably twice. When Petacchi sprints around you, you have to go and grab his wheel right away. Don't ride behind guys who are getting musettes outside of the feed zone. This is basic stuff.

Quick Tour Thought

2010-07-11T18:38:00.002-04:00

Alright, I'm back, and it's good to be back. It is Tour time, and I'd like to take the opportunity to slate Mr. Bradley Wiggins for murdering his entire team and then losing a minute forty-five in the last 3k. Well done, sir.

Giro Finale Preview (Stages 17-21)

2008-05-27T23:35:00.021-04:00

First off, I would like to apologize for my lack of diligence with regard to this blog of late. I've had a lot of schoolwork and, unfortunately, as much as I love writing about cycling, it has to be subordinate to other things I have to do. However, without further explanation/excuses, a Preview of the final 5 stages of this year's Giro. By the way, you can see the full versions of the images I post by clicking on them.

Stage 17: Sondrio - Locarno

This is the final stage of the Giro that looks like one for the sprinters, and I have to suspect that it will be a battle between the race's two top fastmen so far, Daniele Bennati (Lampre) and Mark Cavendish (High Road). Bennati has one stage more than the Brit so far, and I fancy him to get another tomorrow. He's been very fast so far and has the gift of a lot more experience than Cavendish, which I think will have helped him get through the high mountains in better shape.

Stage 18: Mendrisio - Varese

Another day of transition before three huge days to settle the General Classification, this one ends on another short climb. So far, these finishes have been dominated by the young Italian Ricardo Ricco (Saunier Duval), however, this climb averages just 2.5% over 5 kilometers, not exactly the steep finish that Ricco would favor. Still, the Saunier Duval rider knows that he needs to pull back time on the maglia rosa Alberto Contador whenever and wherever he can, and I think he will win this stage, and with the time bonuses, close the gap to his Spanish rival, setting up a huge three days of mano y mano combat in the Dolomites and the roads of Milan.

Stage 19: Legnano - Monte Pora

Stage 19 is an epic mountain stage and a fitting final summit finish for this year's Giro. Three massive climbs will shatter the peloton, and leave only the strongest men at the head of the race at the top of Monte Pora. So far the mountain stages have been dominated by CSF Navigare's Emmanuele Sella and the aforementioned Ricardo Ricco. However, I think the man who will break out of his shell on the big stage will be Caisse d'Epargne's Venezuelan enigma, Jose Rujano. Rujano has been getting stronger and stronger, and I think he will not be chased down by the big teams, who will be too concerned with battling each other. One other man to watch will be Serramenti's Gilberto Simoni, who also has an outside chance at the final maglia rosa.

Stage 20: Rovetta - Tirano

Another monster mountain stage, and the last chance for the climbers to get in their big attacks before the final day time trial. Two huge climbs, the Passo Gavia and Passo Mortirolo, are followed by a long uphill drag to Aprica and a fast descent into Tirano. This type of stage, in my opinion, favors a strong climber who can also descend well. In other words, LPR's Paolo "Il Falco" Salvodelli; he is far enough down on the overall classification to be given a large lead over the climbs, and his descending skills should be enough to give him the win. More importantly, though, watch for a big battle on the Mortirolo between Contador and Ricco, with the Italian gaining little time over his Spanish rival by the stage's end.

Stage 21: Cesano Maderno - Milano

The last stage of the Giro will hopefully be a tense fight down to the final meters, probably between Contador and Ricco, the two non-time triallists. In that battle, I give the advantage to the Spaniard, because of his performance when it counted in the Tour's final Time Trial last year. There are two riders who I think have a good chance to win Sunday, Marzio Bruseghin (Lampre), Denis Menchov (Rabobank). Both are good time trial riders who are on good form for this Giro. Of the two, I think Bruseghin will triumph, both because of his win in the first long Time Trial and because a great ride in the TT could push him ahead of Gilberto Simoni and onto the 3rd step of the podium.

That's all for the Giro. If I have time, I'll try to write up a Dauphine preview in the next few weeks. Until then...

Forzi squadri Lampre e Milram!
~Ben

Giro Preview Part 2: Stages 1-9

2008-05-10T00:22:00.020-04:00

The first nine Stages this year are fairly difficult and should see a few gaps open up in the GC before the serious mountain stages in the Dolomites. The Team Time Trial should give an early indication of which teams are ready to defend the maglia rosa, and which ones are not.

Stage 1: Palermo - Palermo TTT

As you can see, the TTT is basically going to be a pan-flat speed contest. Two of the strongest time trialling teams in the race, Astana and Slipstream are the big favorites for this first Stage. Astana will be looking to show that their overall challenged is solid, and one of the characteristics of Johan Bruyneel teams is their strength in the Team test. Slipstream has a number of talented riders, and they very much want to prove that they are deserving of their wild card selection to the Giro. However. I reckon that the depth of Astana will be the clincher for the Kazakh-sponsored squad.

Stage 2: Cefalu - Agrigento

Stage 2 is an undulating ride across the island of Sicily, and finishes with a short 3.7-kilometer climb up to the finish in Agrigento. This finish is the kind that an aggressive rider with good climbing ability and who wants to gain time early on can profit from. In other words, this stage is perfect for Danilo Di Luca (LPR Brakes). The defending Giro champion thrives on this kind of finish, and his explosiveness on the shorter climbs will be the clincher here. The other likely result is a breakaway win, because the sprinters' teams know they can't win on a finish like this, and therefore will not chase down the breaks. However, the big men of this year's Giro should be looking to put time into each other early on, so I suspect the teams with GC contenders will keep the race together over the last 10 km, before all hell breaks loose on the climb.

Stage 3: Catania - Milazzo

Aside from the initial climbing (which results from the Giro taking an inland route around Mt. Etna) this is absolutely a sprinters' stage. The almost completely flat last 120 km should give the sprinters' teams plenty of time to chase down the early morning breakaway and set up their lead-out trains for the finish. Although I'm not convinced of the quality of the team surrounding him, my pick for this stage is Mark Cavendish (High Road). He's clearly on good form after winning the Scheldeprijs Vlaanderen and two stages of the Tour de Romandie, and has a very fast finishing kick.

Stage 4: Pizzo Calabro - Catanzaro-Lungomare

Stage 4 is the first Stage on the Italian mainland and provides early on a taste of the climbing to come. However, the majority of the stage is fairly flat, and the sole climb that comes late on, the climb to the town of Catanzaro, averages just 3.1% - not too hard for the sprinters. I reckon that Daniele Bennati (Liquigas) will win this stage. I think his team will be able to crank up the pace on the climb and set him up better than High Road will for Cavendish.

Stage 5: Belvedere Marittimo - Contursi Terme

This stage is very similar to Stage 2, in that it has a fairly undulating profile and a short climb up to the finish. However, the climbing in this stage is significantly easier, and the finish is suited more to a rider like the World Road Race Champion Paolo Bettini (Quick.Step) who can take the 6.9% grade of the 3-kilometer climb in his stride. Bettini also has the benefit of a strong team which is suited to this type of short climb racing because of its presence as a major force in the Northern Classics.

Stage 6: Potenza - Peschici

If it weren't for a very slight uptick in the profile right at the end, I would call this an easy stage for the sprinters. However, because of the very short but sharp climb, I favor Igor Astarloa, or a similar rider to win this stage. Although Astarloa hasn't been a very large figure in races since he was World Champion in 2004, he has a good finishing kick on the climbs - you have to to win La Fleche Wallonne. Another good pick would be the always aggressive CSC veteran Jens Voigt, or, once again, Paolo Bettini.

Stage 7: Vasto - Pescoconstanzo

This will be the first real mountain test of the 2008 Giro. Although the summit finish is not a terribly difficult one, it will be an important psychological test for all of the major contenders. The time triallists like Menchov and Kloden must keep their cool and not lose more than two minutes here. As far as the stage winner is concerned, there are almost innumberable possibilities because of the number of high-quality climbers in this race. However, I would give the edge to Riccadro Ricco (Saunier Duval) winning ahead of Alberto Contador (Astana). I think those two will be the main animators of the race in the mountains, and their dynamic climbing styles will demolish the rest of the field. Don't discount Gilberto Simoni (Serramenti PVC) or Leonardo Piepoli (Saunier Duval), among others.

Stage 8: Rivisondoli - Tivoli

Yet another flattish stage that the sprinters would say has been "spoiled" by adding in that little climb at the end. I've pretty much gone over the riders who will have a good shot at winning this kind of stage: Di Luca, Bettini, Astarloa, and Voigt. This Stage, however, actually has a decent potential for breakaways. A tired peloton after the first mountain stage might not be inclined to chase a harmless break that builds up a bid lead early on. One rider to look out for could be Christian Vande Velde (Slipstream). The Slipstream team will be looking to put a lot of riders in breaks throughout the race to hopefully get a stage win, and this is a pretty good stage for Vande Velde to target.

Stage 9: Civitavecchia - San Vincenzo

No question about it, this is one of the flattest Stages of this year's Giro. There is almost nothing to discuss when it comes to the profile, it is, quite simply, flat (with a few hills for good measure). This kind of Stage seems like the kind that Cavendish will enjoy greatly, even if he doesn't get a perfect lead-out. He will be challenged by Zabel, McEwen (unless he drops out on Stage 7), and Bennati, but I suspect the Brit will come out on top. His sprint speed won't have been dulled much by the climbing, and he'll still have a good number of teammates willing to work for him. However, don't discount McEwen, because if there is any stage he has a chance of winning, this is probably it.

I'll do Part 3 after the TTT tomorrow. Forzi squadri Milram e Lampre!
-Ben

Overall Giro Preview

2008-05-09T22:49:00.004-04:00

Since the Giro is a huge race, and this year's edition is especially exceptional, I'm breaking my Preview up into four parts. The first part (which you're reading right now) is an overall preview; I'll give my take on the favorites for the maglia rosa (GC), the maglia verde (Mountains), the maglia ciclamino (Points), and the maglia bianca (Young Rider), and how I see the race unfolding overall. The second part will cover Stages 1-9, the third, Stages 10-16, and the final part, Stages 17-21.

Map:

Overall Profile:

This year's Giro begins with a short 28.5 km Team Time Trial though the Sicilian city of Palermo, then crosses the island to Agrigento, and then Stage 3 crosses back to the finish in Milazzo. The first seven stages are all fairly difficult as early stages go, and should serve to create a few gaps before the first true foray into the mountains on Stage 7. The summit finish at Pescocostanzo in the Appenines, following a long trek up the peninsula, will give the climbers a chance to pull back most of the time they lost in the opening TTT. The first few stages will also serve to set up the race for the maglia ciclamino of the Points classification, which should be a battle between High Road's Mark Cavendish, Milram's Erik Zabel, and Liquigas' Daniele Bennati. All have shown good form in the early part of the season, although I think Bennati's combination of speed and consistency will triumph over Zabel's experience and Cavendish's pure sprinting talent. While normally I would give Robbie McEwen (Silence-Lotto) a good chance of winning, his lack of consistent results in the past year has raised doubts for me about whether he can still compete for a Points jersey, which requires consistency and attentiveness every day of the race.

The Individual Time Trial on Stage 10 should once again bring the more powerful all-rounders and pure time triallists to the fore. They have to make the most of their opportunity, though, as the first Dolomitian mountain stage comes on Stage 14, after 3 stages that look very good for the sprinters. Before that first day in the Italian Alps, we should have a very good idea of the eventual winner of the maglia ciclamino. Stage 14 undulates for the first 140 kilometers before the riders hit the steep ramps of the Passo Manghen; once over the climb they have a 10 kilometer descent before a short flat section leading up the the climb of the Alpe di Pampeago. The Pampeago is a short climb at just 7.7 km, but is very steep (9.8% average grade). The pure climbers will hit out hard, but only on the last climb, because they know what is to come the next day. It does, however, seem a climb tailor made for the attacking style of one Alberto Contador (Astana)

The queen stage of this year's Giro is the 15th Stage, from Arabba to the summit of the Passo Fedaia (the Marmolada). It features five absolutely massive climbs; the Passo Pordoi, the Passo San Pellegrino, the Passo Giau, the Passo Falzarego, and the final climb of the Marmolada. The climbers will once again be on the attack, but also must be wary because the next day is the brutal Mountain Time Trial up the Kronplatz. The climber that can put the most time into his rivals on these three stages will be in an excellent position to win the race overall.

Following two moderate stages through the Alpine valleys, the Giro the three final stages will (hopefully) all prove critical to determining the overall winner. The summit finish at Monte Pora stage 19 is the last of the Giro, and will be the penultimate chance for the climbers to gain time before the last-day time trial. Once again, the stiff gradient of the climb should give us a great battle between, perhaps, the two young stars of the mountains - Alberto Contador and Riccardo Ricco (Saunier Duval). The final mountain stage from Rovetta to Tirano crosses the Giro's highest peak, the formidable Passo Gavia, which tops out at 2618 meters and is well over 20 kilometers in length. The Gavia is followed, after a long descent, by the equally fearsome Passo del Mortirolo, a 12.8-kilometer monster that averages a 10.8% in grade. Following a 15-kilometer drag up to Aprica, the riders plunge down into Tirano, where, in all likelyhood, a very nervous climber will put on the maglia rosa before the time triallists try to rip it from him the following day.

Hopefully we will not know the overall winner before the start of the 23.5-kilometer time trial from Cesano Maderno to the center of Milan, but it certainly is possible. The sheer amount of climbing in this year's Giro should give plenty of opportunities for the mountain men to put time into the rouleurs. The time trial course, however, is completely flat, and if a good time trial rider is within a minute of Contador (I expect him to have taken the lead by this point through constant attacks in the mountains), the race will still be up for grabs.

My Predictions:
GC: Alberto Contador (Astana)
KOM: Alberto Contador
Points: Daniele Bennati (Liquigas)
Young Rider: Riccardo Ricco (Saunier Duval)

Part 2 will be along later.

Milano-San Remo Preview

2008-03-21T23:04:00.007-04:00

The biggest race of the season so far starts tomorrow on the Piazzo Duomo in Milan. At 298 kilometers, Milano-San Remo is by far the longest of the Monuments, and should produce a huge battle, not only between the sprinters, but also with some of the strong breakaway riders like Paolo Bettini (Quick.Step) and Danilo Di Luca (LPR). The percorso of La Primavera has been slightly altered this year due to road construction; a new climb has been included in the form of Le Manie, a 4.7 kilometer climb at an average of 6.7%, and the finish has been shifted from the traditional boulevard of the Via Roma to the slightly wider Lungomare Italo Calvino, which is right on the Ligurian seaside.

Overall Route Map:

Overall Route Profile:

The overall route is essentially the same as it is every year. After a long, flat, first 100 kilometers, the race tackles its first climb in the form of the very gradual Passo del Turchino. After the fast descent off the Turchino, the riders have about 40 kilometers of flat or undulation riding along the Ligurian coast before Le Manie. Unfortunately, despite the difficulty of the climb, its distance from the finish (nearly 100 kilometers) will prevent it from being a real springboard to victory. Le Manie is followed by another 60k of undulating roads until the first of the two most crucial climbs in Milano-San Remo, the Cipressa. Although it does not usually create the winning break, the Cipressa does serve to narrow out the field a bit; some of the pre-race favorites may be dropped on the climb, and there have also been crashes on the descent in the past. The most important climb in Milano-San Remo, however, is the last one, the Poggio (also known as the Poggio di Sanremo). It's a fairly shallow and short climb at just 3.7% over only 3.7 kilometers, but Di Luca and Bettini, among others, will be firing on all cylinders up the Poggio. If a small group can stay away over the top of the climb, they have a chance (albeit a small one) of winning; Bettini won from a break in 2003 and Filippo Pozzato (Liquigas) barely held on ahead of Alessandro Petacchi (Milram) two years ago. This year, however, the race looks destined for a bunch sprint, not only because there are several top-class sprinters whose teams will chase down every last breakaway attempt, but also because the finish has been altered. There are about 500 additional meters of flat (enough time for a charging peloton to eliminate a 5" to 10" lead) that have been added, giving the sprinters' teams even more space to chase down any breaks that survive over the Poggio.

Final Ks Map:

Final Ks Profile:

Predictions:
It must be said that, as a huge Alessandro Petacchi fan, I am clearly biased in my predictions for La Primavera. I think that the Ale-Jet has a fantastic chance to capture his second win in Milano-San Remo tomorrow, and I'm surprised how much the media are, in my opinion, underrating him. The popular favorite is Rabobank's Oscar Freire after his two stage wins in Tirreno-Adriatico. Tom Boonen (Quick.Step) and Thor Hushovd (Credit Agricole) should also have a good chance, although Hushovd will not have the same team support as the other big sprinters. Robbie McEwen (Silence-Lotto) seems to be getting a bit on in years, and has never really been a consistently great finisher in MSR. Lampre's hopes in the sprint will rest on Danilo Napolitano, while Barloworld will have a three-pronged attack with Robbie Hunter, Enrico Gasparotto, and Baden Cooke.
The possible breakaway winners are led by the World Road Champion Bettini and LPR's Di Luca. Gerolsteiner's Stefan Schumacher may also be a major animator on the Poggio, and Alessandro Ballan will be at the sharp end of the race for Lampre. Former World Champion Igor Astarloa (Milram) may be given a bit of a free role if Petacchi is not feeling up to his best, but the team with the biggest set of breakaway threats is CSC. Frank Schleck, Fabian Cancellara and Stuart O'Grady could all be on the attack on the Poggio, as O'Grady seems to have lost a bit of his sprinting sharpness.
My pick is still Alessandro Petacchi. I think Ale-Jet has the experience, the team, and the sprinting ability to win tomorrow on the Lungomare Italo Calvino.

Forza Petacchi e squadri Milram!
-Ben

Tirreno-Adriatico Review

2008-03-21T22:22:00.005-04:00

2008 Tirreno-Adriatico (Italy)
March 12-18, NE

Overall GC Winner: Fabian Cancellara (CSC)
Mountains Classification: Lloyd Mondory (ag2r - La Mondiale)
Points Classification: Oscar Freire (Rabobank)
Best Young Rider: Thomas Lovkvist (High Road)
Stage Winners:
Stage 1 - Oscar Freire (Rabobank)
Stage 2 - Raffaele Illiano (Serramenti PVC Diquigiovanni)
Stage 3 - Joaquím Rodríguez (Caisse d'Epargne)
Stage 4 - Alessandro Petacchi (Milram)
Stage 5 - Fabian Cancellara (CSC)
Stage 6 - Oscar Freire (Rabobank)
Stage 7 - Francesco Chicchi (Liquigas)
Notable Events/Controversies: Besides Ricardo Ricco getting mad after a mechanical incident on Stage 2 and (literally) throwing his bike across the finish line, not much.
Good race for: Italians and Spaniards (they won 6 stages).
Bad race for: Breakaways.
Pros: Excellent weather and some good sprints.
Cons: It was a bit predictable, overall. Then again Tirreno is a sprinters' race, so that does tend to happen.
We'll Remember it for: Two words: the Montelupone.
What to change for 2009: Stick in a few more big climbs (long, not just steep like the Montelupone) to create GC shakeups besides the TT.
Overall rating: 7/10; I'm being a bit charitable because I like Tirreno and Petacchi got a stage win, but the Montelupone stage was pretty crazy.

Paris-Nice Review

2008-03-21T21:37:00.004-04:00

2008 Paris-Nice (Paris, France to Nice, France)
March 9-16, NE

Overall GC Winner: Davide Rebellin (Gerolsteiner)
Mountains Classification: Clément Lhotellerie (Skil-Shimano)
Points Classification: Thor Hushovd (Credit Agricole)
Best Young Rider: Robert Gesink (Rabobank)
Stage Winners:
Prologue - Thor Hushovd (Credit Agricole)
Stage 1 - Gert Steegmans (Quick.Step)
Stage 2 - Gert Steegmans (Quick.Step)
Stage 3 - Kjell Carlström (Liquigas)
Stage 4 - Cadel Evans (Silence-Lotto)
Stage 5 - Carlos Barredo (Quick.Step)
Stage 6 - Sylvain Chavanel (Cofidis)
Stage 7 - Luis Leon Sanchez (Caisse d'Epargne)
Notable Events/Controversies: Not really anything terribly controversial in the racing itself, although there were pre-race polemics between the ASO and UCI over the race's status as a FFC-sanctioned race instead of a ProTour event.
Good race for: Quick.Step (3 stage wins) and Cadel Evans (stage win atop the Mont Ventoux).
Bad race for: Pure climbers, especially Cunego. They flattered to decieve throughout.
Pros: A very attacking and hilly last few stages.
Cons: Terrible weather and stale racing for the first few days.
We'll Remember it for: Rebellin finally breaking through and winning the Race to the Sun, and Luis Leon Sanchez riding like an über-Jens Voigt on his way to winning the last stage. Also (possibly) the breakout race for Lhotellerie.
What to change for 2009: Not much, maybe one more true flat stage to attract more of the pure sprinters, but keep the Ventoux, for sure.
Overall rating: 8/10, some young guns (especially Sanchez, Gesink and Lhotellerie) and a good route made for some serious attacking cycling.

Paris-Nice Preview Part 1: Prologue - Stage 3

2008-03-08T22:25:00.012-05:00

The first big stage race of the season starts Sunday in Paris. Although the field has been hurt a bit by riders concerned about the ramifications of the UCI-ASO feud, there will still be many top class riders on the start line in Amilly tomorrow. Davide Rebellin (Gerolsteiner), Christophe Moreau (Agritubel), Oscar Pereiro (Caisse d'Epargne), Damiano Cunego (Lampre-Fondital), Cadel Evans (Silence-Lotto), Frank Schleck (CSC) and David Millar (Slipstream) will be the main contenders for overall victory, while Thor Hushovd (Credit Agricole) will battle Bernhard Eisel (High Road) and Bradley McGee (CSC) in the sprints. The race is dominated by undulating and moderate mountain stages, in which attacking riders like Stefan Schumacher (Gerolsteiner) and Jens Voigt (CSC) will try to grab an early season win or perhaps the race lead.

Overall Map:

This year's race starts with a short Prologue time trial outside of Paris. The first stage is the only "true" sprinters' stage, and is followed by a pair of difficult stages which will probably have breakaway winners, but will certainly impact the overall classification. The queen stage is the summit finish on Mont Ventoux, and it will probably go a long way to deciding the final winner. The last three stages are difficult, including the traditional final day's mountainous race around the city of Nice.

Prologue Map:

Prologue Profile:

The Prologue time trial is a completely flat, short test around Amilly. It is not very technical either, meaning the best time will probably be somewhere between 5:00 and 5:10, for an average speed of about 55 km/h. The favorite has to be the British Time Trial Champion and past Tour Prologue winner David Millar, although Thor Hushovd has been a good prologue rider as well.

Stage 1 Map:

Stage 1 Profile:

This is the only clear opportunity for the sprinters to take a stage. As such the sprinters' teams will probably take command and close down any dangerous early breaks. They'll reel whatever group does escape in by about 5k to go and we'll have a typical sprint finish. I give Hushovd the edge in a sprint because he seems to be able to perform at a high level throughout the season, and its important for Credit Agricole to do well this year because they are looking for a new sponsor.

Stage 2 Map:

Stage 2 Profile:

Although the first 130 km of Stage 2 are fairly flat, the latter part of the stage is very demanding, and could provide a serious test before the queen stage two days later. A group of strong climbers will probably escape on the early slopes of the Champ Juin and survive until the finish in a small group sprint. As such I'm picking one of my favorite riders, Lampre's Damiano Cungeo, to send out a warning to the other GC men before the Ventoux.

Stage 3 Map:

Stage 3 Profile:

Another demanding stage, this time deep into the Massif Central which the previous day's stage only skirted. The major contenders will keep their powder dry and watch each other carefully because the Ventoux is the next day and they will pay for any huge efforts on this stage. The winner will probably be a solid climber who doesn't have a big shot at the overall - a rider like Yaroslav Popovych (Silence-Lotto) or Jens Voigt. Bobby Julich (CSC) may also have a chance to win here.

The Prologue will be shown (tape-delayed) on Versus from 5 to 7 PM EDT on Sunday (3/9).

Forza Cunego e Petacchi!
-Ben

Monte Paschi Eroica Preview

2008-03-07T22:19:00.007-05:00

Just as the Northern Classics kicked off last week with Omloop Het Volk and Kuurne-Brussles-Kuurne, the Italian season really starts this weekend with the second edition of the Monte Paschi Eroica. RCS, also organizers of the Giro d'Italia, held the first edition last fall, but moved the race to its new early spring date to attract more riders preparing for the cobbled classics. It already has a nickname - The Italian Paris-Roubaix - and a reputation as one of the most demanding semi-classics. 56.1 of the race's 181 kilometers are on strade bianche - the Italian name for dirt roads. While the Eroica does not have true cobblestones, the length of the dirt sectors (almost equal to the total amount of pave' in Paris-Roubaix's 260 kilometers) make the race very difficult. Many of the Italian "big guns" will be there on Saturday, including the World Champion Paolo Bettini (Quick.Step), Alessandro Ballan (Lampre-Fondital), Gilberto Simoni (Serramenti PVC), Daniele Nardello (Serramenti PVC), and Riccardo Ricco (Saunier Duval-Scott).

Race Map:

Race Profile:

The Eroica is, as the profile shows, not a flat race by any means. It is quite undulating, especially on the srade bianche sectors, which can make for very tricky descents. All of the riders out to win this year's Eroica will need a bit of luck to go with some solid early season form and good tactical abilities, which are all key to winning semi-classics and classics.

Predictions:
Two riders who have, in my opinion, the best chance of winning the Eroica are Paolo Bettini and Alessandro Ballan. Both are strong men in the classics, although Ballan has the edge in the cobbled classics following his win in de Ronde last year. Their team support will be about equal; Bettini will have Steven De Jongh, winner of KBK last week, and the big Belgian Kevin van Impe, while Ballan's all-Italian squad will be vice-captained by the experienced Ventian Fabio Baldato, who has finished on the podium in Paris-Roubaix, Milan-San Remo, Ghent Wevelgem, and de Ronde.

However, there are several riders and teams who have a very good shot at winning the Eroica. The ever-present Team CSC will have the defending champion of Paris-Roubaix, Stuart O'Grady, leading a squad which includes Kurt Asle-Arvesen, Lars Bak, and the young Dane Matti Breschel. Serramenti PVC has sent out two of its best riders in the climbing specialist and twice Giro winner Gilberto Simoni and their team sprinter Daniele Nardello. Between the two of them Serramenti PVC will be a serious threat. We can't forget about Riccardo Ricco either; the revelation of last year's Giro could well be looking to deliver a warning of his strength to Simoni in particular before the big mountain tests in May.

My pick is Alessandro Ballan. I think Bettini will be looking ahead to Tirreno-Adriatico and two weeks hence to Milano-San Remo, and keep his powder dry. More importantly, though, Bettini has never, in his 11-year career, finished on the podium in a cobbled classic or semi-classic. Ballan has finished on the podium in two Monuments in his 4 years as a professional (Roubaix in '06 and de Ronde last year).

Forza Petacchi e Ballan!
-Ben

Tour of California Wrapup

2008-02-28T18:00:00.003-05:00

2008 Tour of California (California, USA)
February 17-24, 2.HC

Overall Winner: Levi Leipheimer (Astana)
Stage Winners:
Prologue - Fabian Cancellara (CSC)
Stage 1 - JJ Haedo (CSC)
Stage 2 - Tom Boonen (Quick.Step)
Stage 3 - Robert Gesink (Rabobank)
Stage 4 - Dominique Rollin (Toyota-United)
Stage 5 - Levi Leipheimer (Astana)
Stage 6 - Luciano Pagliarini (Saunier Duval-Scott)
Stage 7 - George Hincapie (High Road)
Notable Events/Controversies: Besides the Return of Cipo, Cavendish's DQ for holding on to the High Road team car for too long on Stage 6.
Good race for: Riders who like bad weather, especially torrential downpours for 7 hours straight.
Bad race for: Guys who came expecting to work on the tans they started in Qatar.
Pros: Only three field sprints and a very exciting last stage. More climbs and tougher conditions than most of the other early season races.
Cons: In a word: rain.
We'll Remember it for: The return of Super Mario Cipollini. Even though Cipo didn't win any stages, he was a factor in the sprints and seems to still have a good finishing kick despite being out of competition for more than two years. And we'll remember Rollin's win after 7 hours in pouring rain and wind.
What to change for 2009: More climbs, and a bona fide killer mountain stage. California has some huge mountains, USE THEM!
Overall rating: 8/10, even though the weather sucked big time for half the week, the racing was good and the last stage was some really good stuff. Rollin's long breakaway victory on stage 4 was class as well.

Tour Down Under Wrap-up

2008-02-01T23:15:00.000-05:00

The 10th edition of the Tour Down Under finished up last week, and now I will inaugurate, if you will, a new feature of this blog: race wrap-ups. Here goes! :)

2008 Tour Down Under (South Australia)
January 20-27, ProTour

Winner: Andre Greipel (High Road)
Stage Winners: Greipel (2, 4, 5,6), Mark Renshaw (Credit Agricole; 1), Allan Davis (UniSA-Australia; 3)
Notable Events/Controversies: Elia Rigotto's (Milram) headbutt which took out Matt Hayman (Rabobank) on Stage 4.
Winners: Greipel, Team High Road.
Losers: Matt Hayman, Allan Davis, and Robbie McEwen, who was totally absent throughout.
Pros: Pretty fast racing, especially for January; good if you like sprinters.
Cons: Not once did a break win the day despite many valiant attacks, particularly by the French.
We'll Remember it for: The emergence of Andre Greipel, probably. And the Rigotto headbutt.
What to change for 2009: MORE HILLS! Even the Willunga Hill didn't stop the sprinters from takind out every stage of the TDU.
Overall rating: 7/10, despite the formulaic sprint finishes, it wasn't bad racing for January. The final stage had some tension in it as well, which was good for the race.

I'll do one for the Tour of Qatar and maybe the 'Cross Worlds as well.

2008 Teams Preview Part 7: Serramenti PVC through Tinkoff Credit Systems

2008-02-01T16:21:00.000-05:00

In this final installment, I will discuss the last of the Pro Continental teams, starting with Serramenti PVC Diquigiovanni and finishing up with Tinkoff Credit Systems.

Serramenti PVC Diquigiovanni-Androni Giocattoli
Venezulan/Italian
Team Manager: Antonio Castano
Key Riders: Gilberto Simoni, twice winner of the Giro d'Italia, five times a podium finisher and eight times a stage winner; Alessandro Bertolini, winner of the 2006-7 UCI Europe Tour and six races last year.
Depth: 3/10, a decent squad but not really one strong enough to support Gibo' in the Giro. If he gets the maglia rosa, it will be tough for them to give him the level of protection he has had in the past at Saeco, Lampre, and Saunier Duval.
Expectations: A good Giro and wins in Italian Pro Continental races.

L.P.R. Brakes
Swiss
Team Manager: Davide Boifava
Key Riders: Danilo Di Luca, winner of last year's Giro, 2005 ProTour Champion, six times a Giro stage winner, winner of the Giro di Lombardia, Fleche Wallone, Liege-Bastogne-Liege, and the Amstel Gold Race; Paolo Salvodelli, winner of the 2002 and 2005 Giros, four stage wins, 2nd in 1999 and 5th in 2006, nicknamed "Il Falco" for his descending ability.
Depth: 3/10, outside of Di Luca and Salvodelli, the don't have any riders of note. However, its important to remember that "Il Falco" won the '05 Giro with very little team support.
Expectations: High placings in the Giro and a strong showing by Di Luca in the Ardennes Classics.

Skil-Shimano
Dutch
Team Manager: Arend Scheppink
Key Riders: Nobody really.
Depth: 2/10, a squad of mediocre Dutch, Japanese and Chinese riders who can't cut it in the ProTour.
Expectations: Miscellaneous wins and maybe a wild card invite to the Tour de Suisse or Deutschland Tour.

Slipstream-Chipotle
American
Team Manager: Jonathan Vaughters
Key Riders: Magnus Backstedt, Paris-Roubaix winner and Tour stage winner; Tom Danielson, twice a top-10 finisher in the Vuelta with a stage in 2006, also winner of the 2005 Tour de Georgia; David Millar, who has won three stages in the Tour, two stages of the Vuelta, and is the current British Road and Time Trial Champion; David Zabriske, winner of stages in all three Grand Tours, US Time Trial Champion and second in the 2006 World Tim Trial Championships behind Fabian Cancellara.
Depth: 5/10, a good team with a lot of diversity in terms of nationality and talent.
Expectations: Strong showings in the Giro and Tour, as well as good performances in the Tours of California, Georgia, and Missouri.

Team Volksbank
Austrian
Team Manager: Thomas Kofler
Key Riders: None.
Depth: 0/10. Don't expect to see these guys much this year at all.
Expectations: Ride the Tour de Suisse or Tour of Austria.

Tinkoff Credit Systems
Italian
Team Manager: Omar Piscina
Key Riders: Mikhail Ignatiev, their second most prolific winner last year with five wins; Alberto Loddo, who won 8 races last year including 5 stages of the Tour de Langkawi.
Depth: 4/10, one of the better Pro Continental teams without question.
Expectations: Good performances in small stage races.

That's it for the Team Previews. A Review of the Tour Down Under and Tour of Qatar will be up soon.

2008 Teams Preview Part 6: Intel-Action through Relax-Gam

2008-01-28T20:35:00.000-05:00

In this penultimate installment, I will discuss the second group of Pro Continental teams, from Intel-Action through Relax-Gam.

Intel-Action
Polish
Team Manager: Piotr Kosmala
Key Rider: Cezary Zamana, past Polish Champion and past Tour of Poland winner.
Depth: 1/10, they're nobodies.
Expectations: A good Tour of Poland and miscellaneous wins in small races.

Karpin-Galicia
Spanish
Team Manager: Rodrigo Rodriguez
Key Riders: Isidro Nozal, 2 stages and 2nd overall in the 2003 Vuelta; Ezequiel Mosquera, 5th overall in the 2007 Vuelta; Santos Gonzalez, 4th overall and a stage in the 2000 Vuelta.
Depth: 4/10, one of the stronger Spanish Pro Continental teams.
Expectations: A good Vuelta and strong performances in Spanish stage races.

Landbouwkrediet-Tonissteiner
Belgian
Team Manager: Claude Van Coillie
Key Rider: Tom Steels, four-time Belgian champion, 9 stages in the Tour, twice winner of Ghent-Wevelgem.
Depth: 2/10, not much here outside of Steels.
Expectations: A good classics season and some wins in Belgian races.

Navigators Insurance
American
Team Manager: Beamon Edward
Key Riders: David O'Loughlin, thrice Irish Road Champion; Kristian House, winner of many domestic races and other small races.
Depth: 3/10, one of the stronger teams in the American peloton.
Expectations: A strong showing in domestic races and good performances in Europe.

OTC Doors-Lauretana
Italian
Team Manager: Pier Giovanni Baldini
Key Riders: None. Seriously.
Depth: -5/10, I would give them a worse rating but I have a soft spot for Italian teams.
Expectations: Win some small Italian race.

Relax-Gam
Spanish
Team Manager: Guillermo Marcos Guerrero
Key Rider: Francisco Mancebo, Best Young Rider in the 2000 Tour, twice a podium finisher in the Vuelta and 4th in the 2005 Tour.
Depth: 4/10, good riders, but many of them have been tainted by
Operacion Puerto.
Expectations: A solid Vuelta would be the highlight of their campaign.

The final segment, Part 7, will be along in a few days. It will cover the remaining seven teams, from Serramenti-Selle Italia through Tinkoff.

2008 Teams Preview Part 5: Aqua e Sapone through Health Net

2008-01-18T22:13:00.000-05:00

In this installment, I will briefly preview the first part of the Pro Continental Teams, starting with Aqua e Sapone and finishing with Health Net-Maxxis. Because many of these teams are small, the previews will also be smaller; Depth ratings are on the same scale as the ProTour teams.

Aqua e Sapone-Caffe Mokambo
Italian
Team Manager: Franco Gini
Key Riders: Stefano Garzelli, 2000 Giro winner, also winner of six stages in his career; Luca Paolini, Vuelta stage winner, 3rd places in both Milano-San Remo and de Ronde van Vlaanderen.
Depth: 5/10, although the team is weak besides Garzelli and Paolini, those two together make this team better than some of the French ProTour teams. Aqua e Sapone is definitely in the top tier of the Pro Continental teams.
Expectations: Win some Italian races; a stage of the Giro would be the high point of their season.

Agritubel
French
Team Manager: David Fornes
Key Riders: Juan Miguel Mercado, twice a stage winner in the Tour; Benoit Salmon, former Best Young Rider in the Tour.
Depth: 4/10, they're a small French team, what more do you want?
Expectations: Wins in small French races, maybe put a couple riders in big breaks in the Tour and hope that they can sneak a stage win or a leaders' jersey for a day.

Andalucia-Cajasur

Spanish
Team Manager: Antonio Cabello
Key Rider: Luis Perez Rodriguez, thrice a top-10 finisher in the Vuelta, and two stage wins.
Depth: 2/10, after Rodriguez, they have nada.
Expectations: Wins in small Spanish races, a good Vuelta for Rodriguez.

Barloworld
British/South African
Team Manager: Claudio Corti
Key Riders: Juan Mauricio Soler, who won a stage and the King of the Mountains jersey in the 2007 Tour; Baden Cooke, winner of the Points jersey in the '03 Tour; Robbie Hunter, second in the Points competition with a stage win in the '07 Tour (also the first African rider to ever win a stage of the Tour).
Depth: 6/10, a very good team which is probably deserving of ProTour status.
Expectations: Miscellaneous sprint wins from Cooke and Hunter, and a good Tour, especially for Soler.

Benfica
Portuguese
Team Manager: Orlando Rodiguez
Key Rider: Jose Azevedo, a top-5 finisher in the Giro and Tour.
Depth: 1/10 Take Azevdeo out of this team and they won't win anything of note for the next 50 years.
Expectations: High finishes in stage races and maybe a mountain stage win for Azevedo.

Ceramica Flaminia
Italian
Team Manager: Massimo Podenzana
Key Riders: You're kidding, right? The only thing any of this team's riders have won in the last 5 years is the National Championships of Belarus.
Depth: Hahaha......0/10, they suck.
Expectations: Ride a race. Just one, that's all the sponsors require.

Ceramica Panaria-Navigare
Irish, yes that's right, they're IRISH!
Team Manager: Roberto Reverberi
Key Riders: Luis Felipe Laverde, twice a Giro stage winner; Fortunato Baliani, a frequent high finisher in the Giro KOM competition; Juli Alberto Perez, two stage wins and the KOM inf the 2002 Giro.
Depth: 4/10, a slightly below-average team which only really comes out to race in the Giro.
Expectations: A good Giro and wins in small Italian races.

Topsport Vlaanderen
Belgian
Team Manager: Christophe Sercu
Key Rider: Nico Eekhout, former Belgian Champion and 2005-6 UCI Europe Tour Champion.
Depth: 3/10, better than would be expected, though, for a small Belgian team.
Expectations: Good placings in the Classics and semi-classics, and a good showing in the UCI European Tour.

DFL-Cyclingnews-Litespeed
British/Australian
Team Manager: Rudi Dubois
Key Riders: Nico Mattan, winner of the GP Ouest France-Plouay and Ghent-Wevelgem; Hamish Haynes, former British Champion.
Depth: 2/10, very, very poor.
Expectations: A good domestic season and maybe a semi-classic.

Elk Haus-Simplon
Austrian
Team Manager: Alexander Albrecht
Key Riders: None. Seriously.
Depth: -10/10. They make French teams look good.
Expectations: Don't crash the team bus.

Fuerteventura-Canarias
Spanish
Team Manager: Jorge Sastre
Key Riders: Iker Flores is the only rider on this team who I've ever heard of. He was the lanterne rouge of the 2005 Tour.
Depth: 0/10. They are a small Spanish team that amounts to nothing.
Expectations: Get a wild card entry to the Vuelta.

Health Net-Maxxis
American
Team Manager: Mike Tamayo
Key Riders: Gord Fraser, a prolific sprinter in the domestic racing scene; Scott Moninger, the team's best climber; Kirk O'Bee, who has won seven races for Health Net over the last two seasons.
Depth: 3/10, but one of the best teams on the American pro circuit.
Expectations: A fifth consecutive US NRC title and a lot of domestic sucess.

That's the first third of the Pro Continental Teams. Next time I'll preview Intel-Action through Relax-Gam.

2008 Teams Preview Part 4: Rabobank, Saunier Duval, and Silence-Lotto

2008-01-15T17:54:00.002-05:00

In the last part of the Preview for the ProTour teams, we will look at two good stage race teams, Rabobank and Silence-Lotto, as well as the mixed bag that is Saunier Duval.

Rabobank

Dutch
Sponsor: A international bank based in the Netherlands
Team Manager: Erik Breukink (Holland)
Key Riders: Oscar Freire, three-time Road World Champion, twice winner of Milano-San Remo, 6 stage wins in the Vuelta in his career, and back-to-back-to-back winner of the semi-classic Brabanste Pijl; Denis Menchov, winner of the 2005 and 2007 Vuelta a Espana, and Best Young rider in the 2003 Tour; Juan Antonio Flecha, who has twice finished on the podium in Paris-Roubaix, and has won the Zuri Metzgete and a stage of the Tour.
Depth: 9/10, the only type of rider that Rabobank is missing is a true climber. They have a great sprinter, a strong stage racer, and an underrated classics rider.
2007 Season: 8/10, a fantastic year with Menchov winning the Vuelta again and Friere racking up 10 wins, which was sadly overshadowed by Rasmussen getting kicked out of the Tour.
Expectations: Stage wins and maybe a green jersey for Freire, a Grand Tour win or podium for Menchov, and a win in one of the Monuments for Flecha.

Saunier Duval - Scott

Spanish
Sponsors: Saunier Duval is a home heating & air conditioning company, and Scott is an American based bike manufacturer
Team Manager: Mauro Gianetti
Key Riders: Leonardo Piepoli, King of the Mountains and a stage win in the Giro; Ricardo Ricco, a stage in the Giro and Best Young Rider; Iban Mayo, winner of the 2003 Tour stage to l'Alpe d'Huez and 6th overall, as well as 2004 Dauphine Libere champion and the winner of the time trial to the top of Mont Ventoux.
Depth: 5/10, a very Spanish team which is dominated by climbers, although the two top riders are Italian. They are lacking a sprinter, and the lost their best time triallist (David Millar) and their biggest GC rider (Gilberto Simoni) in the transfer window.
2007 Season: 8/10, a great Giro and a good Vuelta, but a barely average Tour which was overshadowed by Mayo's positive test for EPO (which was later contradicted by the B sample, and Mayo is free to race).
Expectations: Stage wins in the high mountains and either a serious challenge for either the Giro or Vuelta or a win in the KOM classification.

Silence - Lotto
Belgian
Sponsors: Silence is a subsidiary of Omega Pharma which makes, among other things, drugs which reduce snoring. Lotto is the Belgian national lottery, and one of the most long-running sponsors in pro cycling, having been involved since 1992.
Team Manager: Marc Sergeant
Key Riders: Cadel Evans, 2007 ProTour Champion and Tour de France runner up; Robbie McEwen, winner of 11 Tour stages, 12 Giro stages, 3 times green jersey winner and twice Aussie champion.
Depth: 7/10, despite the loss of Fred Rodriguez and Chris Horner, Silence-Lotto is a strong team and capable of defending an overall lead for Evans or a points lead for McEwen.
2007 Season: 9/10, probably the best that a Lotto-sponsored team has ever had, because of Evans' serious challenges in the Vuelta and Tour. The only thing that would have made it better would have been another green jersey for McEwen.
Expectations: A Grand Tour win for Evans and plenty of wins for McEwen.

That's it for the ProTour Teams. In Part 5, we'll cover the first half of the Pro Continental teams, starting with Aqua e Sapone and going though Health Net.

2008 Teams Preview Part 3: High Road through Quick.Step

2008-01-14T22:43:00.000-05:00

Part Three includes five of the best teams in the 2008 ProTour, High Road (formerly T-Mobile), Lampre, Liquigas, Milram, and Quick.Step.

High Road
German
Sponsor: None; T-Mobile removed its name from the team, although it is still contractually obligated to pay High Road the sponsorship money. High Road is the name of the company which owns the team.
Team Manager: Bob Stapleton (USA)
Key Riders: Michael Rogers, three-time World Time Trial Champion; Gerald Ciolek, a triple stage winner in the Tour of Germany last year and 3rd in the Vattenfall Cyclassics; Mark Cavendish, who won 3 stages and the points jersey in the Tour of Britain; George Hincapie, winner of the Tour of Missouri and second in the USPRO Championships.
Depth: 9/10, this is a very strong team that Stapleton has assembled. The only issue they may have is that there is no obvious #2 stage race rider after Rogers, so if he gets injured as he did last year, they won't have a chance of winning any big stage races.
2007 Season: 7/10, a good set of wins throughout and a yellow jersey for a day in the Tour was overshadowed by Rogers abandoning the Tour in the Alps.
Expectations: Lots of sprint wins for the youngsters Cavendish and Ciolek, and a Grand Tour podium for Rogers.

Lampre-Fondital
Italian
Sponsors: Lampre makes sheet metal, Fondital makes heaters and radiators.
Team Manager: Giuseppe Saronni
Key Riders: Alessandro Ballan, winner of de Ronde van Vlaanderen, the Three Days of De Panne, and the Vattenfall Cyclassics in 2007; Damiano Cungeo, twice winner of the Giro di Lombardia, 2004 Giro d'Italia champion, winner of the Best Young Rider classification in the 2006 Tour; Danilo Napolitano, winner of six races in 2007, including Stage 9 of the Giro.
Depth: 7/10, although they will feel the loss of their best sprinter, Daniele Bennnati, to Liquigas, Lampre are a good team and will be capable of defending Cunego if he takes the maglia rosa.
2007 Season: 9/10, Ballan was excellent throughout, they won the Team classification in the Giro, and Bennati racked up 14 wins, including two Tour stages, three Vuelta stages, and the Points classification.
Expecations: A solid set of results by Ballan in the classics and a serious challenge for the maglia rosa or malliot jaune by Cunego.

Liquigas

Italian
Sponsor: Liquigas sells propane.
Team Manager: Roberto Amadio
Key Riders: Daniele Bennati, winner of two stages in the '07 Tour and three in the Vuelta, with the points classification too boot; Filippo Pozzato, 2006 Milano-San Remo champion, twice winner of Tour stages and the 2007 Omloop Het Volk; Leonardo Bertagnolli, winner of the 2007 Clasica San Sebastian.
Depth: 5/10, after Bennati and Pozzato, Liquigas is decidedly thin.
2007 Season: 8/10, probably the best that they could have hoped for with Di Luca's Giro and Liege-Bastogne-Liege wins, Bertagnolli's victory in San Sebastian, and Pozzato's stage in the Tour. Di Luca's wins were overshadowed, however, by his four-month suspension stemming from the Oil-for-Drugs scandal.
Expectations: Stage wins from Bennati and Pozzato, perhaps a win on the Via Roma or Avenue de Grammont for the former.

Milram

German
Sponsor: Milram sells yogurt and milk products.
Team Manager: Gerry van Gerwen
Key Riders: Alessandro Petacchi, winner of five stages, the points classification, the Combativity classification, and the Azzuri d'Italia award at the 2007 Giro, also winner of two Vuelta stages and Paris-Tours; Erik Zabel, six-time Tour points jersey winner and 12-time stage winner, four-time winner of Milano-San Remo, twice German champion, three times winner of Paris-Tours, thrice Vuelta points champion with eight Vuelta stages as well, and he has the highest number of victories (192) of any active rider; Igor Astarloa, 2003 Fleche Wallone winner and the 2003-4 Road World Champion; Peter Velits, 2007 U-23 Road World Champion.
Depth: 5/10, Milram is a team built around Petacchi and Zabel, and they don't have much else.
2007 Season: 8/10, because of yet another great year for the Ale-Jet.
Expecatations: Grand Tour stage wins, points jerseys, and high placings or wins in the sprinters' classics.

Quick.Step - Innergetic
Belgian
Sponsors: Quick.Step makes laminate flooring, and Innergetic makes mattresses.
Team Manager: Patrick Lefevere
Key Riders: Paolo Bettini, back-to-back Road World Champion, reigning Olympic Champion of the Road Race, three-time winner of the World Cup (the predecessor of the ProTour); Tom Boonen, 2005-6 Road World Champion, two stages and the points jersey in the 2007 Tour, winner of the 2007 Kuurne-Brussles-Kuurne, Dwars Door Vlaanderen, and E3 Prijs Vlaanderen; Gert Steegmans, Boonen's lead-out man and winner of the '07 Tour stage into Ghent.
Depth: 8/10, Quick.Step is a very deep squad for the classics and flat stages in stage races, but lacks an overall challenger in the Grand Tours.
2007 Season: 7/10, it would have been a fantastic year for most teams, but Quick.Step's high expectations for the early part of the season were not fulfilled. They rebounded though, with three stages in the Tour, the points jersey, and Bettini's stage in the Vuelta before he won his second consecutive Rainbow Jersey in Salzburg.
Expectations: A significantly better showing in the Spring Classics, and another malliot vert for Boonen in the Tour.

That's Part 3; in Part 4 I'll finish up the ProTour Teams with Rabobank, Saunier Duval-Scott, and Silence-Lotto.

2008 Teams Preview Part 2: Credit Agricole through Gerolsteiner

2008-01-12T16:25:00.000-05:00

For the second installment, we will look at Credit Agricole, CSC, Euskaltel, FdJeux, and Gerolsteiner.

Credit Agricole
French
Sponsor: French bank
Team Manager: Roger Legeay (France)
Key Riders: Thor Hushovd, winner of the Green Jersey and 5 stages of the Tour; Pietro Caucchioli, he has several top-10s in the Giro.
Depth: 3/10, besides Hushovd, Credit Agricole is a very weak team, and Caucchioli is getting old.
2007 Season: 4/10, Hushovd's Tour stage win was their only ProTour win in 2007; Laszlo Bodrogi finished second in the Worlds TT, but that was while riding for Hungary, not Credit Agricole.
Expectations: A Tour stage or two from Hushovd, and some decent stage race placings from Caucchioli.

CSCDanish
Sponsor: Computer Sciences Coroporation (self-explanatory)
Team Manager: Bjarne Riis (Denmark)
Key Riders: Fabian Cancellara, back-to-back World Time Trial Champion, two stages in the 2007 Tour; Stuart O'Grady, winner of last year's Paris-Roubaix; Carlos Sastre, 4th and 2nd in the 2007 Tour and Vuelta, respectively; Jens Voigt, winner of the '07 Criterium International and Tour of Germany, with a stage win in each as well; Andy Schleck, 2nd overall and Best Young rider in the Giro; Frank Schleck (Andy's older brother), winner of the '06 Tour stage to l'Alpe d'Huez and 10th overall.
Depth: 10/10; There is no one better. CSC has everything, from climbers (Sastre, the Schleck bros.), to sprinters (O'Grady, J.J. Haedo), to time triallists (Cancellara, Bobby Julich), to classics riders (O'Grady, Cancellara, Voigt, Frank Schleck).
2007 Season: 10/10, the best team in the world, hands down. 14 ProTour wins, and second places in the and Giro and Vuelta.
Expectations: A Grand Tour win and more of the dominance we saw last year.

Euskaltel-Euskadi
Basque (Spanish)
Sponsors: The Basque telephone company and regional government, respectively.
Team Manager: Miguel Madariga
Key Riders: Sammy Sanchez, 3rd overall and three stage wins in the Vuelta; Haimar Zubeldia, 5th overall in the Tour; Mikel Astarloza, 9th overall in the Tour.
Depth: 6/10, a solid squad, especially in the high mountains of stage races.
2007 Season: 6/10, an average campaign for the Basques, a pretty good Tour overall, although they could have used a stage win, and a very good final week of the Vuelta.
Expectations: A top-5 in the Tour for Zubeldia and a podium finish in a Grand Tour outside of Spain for Sanchez; miscellaneous mountain stages.

Francaise des Jeux (FdJeux)
French
Sponsor: The French National Lottery
Team Manager: Marc Madiot
Key Riders: Sandy Casar, who won their only ProTour race of the season, Stage 18 of the Tour de France; Phillipe Gilbert, winner of the 2006 Omloop Het Volk; Sebastian Chavanel, who placed highly in several Tour sprints last year.
Depth: 2/10, they lost their best young rider, Thomas Lovkvist, to Team High Road and have no one capable of winning any serious stage races.
2007 Season: 4/10, but only because winning a Tour stage for a French team is HUGE. Otherwise they were very mediocre.
Expectations: Very low. A Tour stage win if they're lucky, and Milram & Quick.step have pity on them.

Gerolsteiner
German
Sponsor: German mineral water company
Team Manager: Reimund Dietzen
Key Riders: Davide Rebellin, the best rider in the Ardennes classics over the last three years, with four wins, a second place, and a third, also 2nd in Paris-Nice; Stefan Schumacher, two stages in the '06 Giro, the 2007 Amstel Gold Race, and bronze in the World Championships
Depth: 6/10, a very diverse team with a lot of very strong classics riders and time triallists.
2007 Season: 6/10, seven ProTour wins, including Amstel Gold and Fleche Wallone, as well as stages in the Giro, Dauphine, and Tour of Germany.
Expecatations: A strong showing in the Ardennes classics again, and some wins from their sprinters, especially Heinrich Haussler.

That's Part 2. Part 3 will be along soon, with Team High Road (formerly T-Mobile), Lampre, Liquigas, Milram, and Quick.Step.

2008 Teams Preview Part 1: Ag2r through Cofidis

2008-01-11T23:57:00.000-05:00

Over the next few weeks, I'll be profiling all of the ProTour and Pro Continental Teams. In this first installment, I will be discussing Ag2r, Astana, Bouygues Telecom, Caisse d'Epargne, and Cofidis.

Ag2r-La Mondiale

French
Sponsors: Ag2r and La Mondiale are both insurance companies
Team Manager: Vincent Lavenu (France)
Key Rider: Jean Patrick-Nazon; the French sprinter has won stages in the Tour in the past, and is a good finisher.
Depth: 2/10; The loss of Christophe Moreau to the Pro Continental outfit Agritubel has left Ag2r without any real GC contender. Although they signed seven new riders, none of them are going to be more then team helpers for Nazon.
2007 Season: 7/10; Moreau's fighting win in le Dauphine Libere more than made up for their relative anonymity for the rest of the season.
Expectations: Some stage wins in French races; a stage in the Tour would be the highlight of their season.

Astana

Kazakh
Sponsor: Astana is a consortium of Kazakh businesses
Team Manager: Johan Bruyneel (Belgium)
Key Riders: Alberto Contador, the defending Tour champion; Levi Leipheimer, third at last year's Tour and a serious contender this year as well; Janez Brajkovic, winner of last year's Tour de Georgia and a major player in the 2006 Vuelta; Andreas Kloden, twice a podium finisher at the Tour, and , although his form and luck have been erratic, he is one of the best in the world on his day.
Depth: 9/10; Bruyneel has taken the best riders from Discovery Channel and brought them to Astana. The one missing piece of the puzzle is a top class sprinter, although Bruyneel didn't seem to worry about that at Discovery either.
2007 Season: 0/10, the team essentially collapsed mid-Tour when Vinokourov was kicked out and they pretty much did nothing for the rest of the season.
Expectations: Nothing less than a Tour win will satisfy Bruyneel or the sponsors, and they certainly have the team to do it.

Bouygues Telecom

French
Sponsor: French mobile phone company
Team Manager: Jean-René Bernaudeau (France)
Key Riders: Thomas Voeckler, wore the maillot jaune for 10 stages in 2004, won the GP Ouest France - Plouay last year; Pierrick Fedrigo, who was French Champion in 2005 and won a stage in the 2006 Tour.
Depth: 3/10, slightly better than Ag2r, but nowhere near the top level of teams in the ProTour
2007 Season: 4/10; their saving grace was Voeckler's win in Plouay, it was their only ProTour win of the year.
Expectations: Win....something?

Caisse d'Epargne

Spanish
Sponsor: French (yes, French) bank
Team Manager: José Miguel Echavarri (Spain)
Key Riders: Alejandro Valverde, beat Lance Armstrong to the summit of Courchevel in 2005, finished 2nd in the 2006 Vuelta; Vladimir Karpets, Best Young Rider of the 2004 Tour and winner of last year's Tour de Suisse; Jose Rujano, a one-trick pony so far, but what a trick it was, King of the Mountains, 3rd overall, and a stage win in the 2005 Giro d'Italia; Oscar Pereiro, winner of the 2006 Tour de France.
Depth: 8/10, this is one of a few teams which will seriously challenge Astana in the Grand Tours. This is the year when Valverde has to win his first of the same, or there will be serious doubts as to whether he can live up to the hype of being the next Miguel Indurain or Luis Ocana.
2007 Season: 7/10, a very good season for many teams, but for a strong GC team like Caisse d'Epargne to fail to contend in any of the Grand Tours was a huge disappointment.
Expectations: A Grand Tour win for Valverde and a strong showing in all three Grand Tours.

Cofidis

French
Team Manager: Eric Boyer (France)
Key Riders: David Moncoutie, twice a stage winner in the Tour, King of the Mountains in last year's Paris-Nice;
Nick Nuyens, a strong rider in the early season classics, winner of the 2006 Kuurne-Brussels-Kuurne.
Depth: 4/10, some strong riders, but no one who really threatens for big wins at all.
2007 Season: 5/10, an average season for an average team; Wiggins' prologue win in the Dauphine and Duque's stage in the Vuelta were the high points.
Expectations: A stage in one of the Grand Tours, miscellaneous wins in French races.

That's Part 1, I'll be back in a few days with Part 2 (Credit Agricole, CSC, Euskaltel, FdJeux, and Gerolsteiner).

Mayo Debacle reaches a satisfactory conclusion

2008-01-07T23:26:00.000-05:00

Today the Spanish cycling federation (RFEC) made one of the best decisions a governing body of cycling has made in recent years. They have declared they will not investigate the doping case against Iban Mayo (Saunier Duval) any further, meaning that he is clear to race in the 2008 season. It would be wrong to suggest that the author of this blog does not have a strong anti-doping stance; however, this case has been horribly handled by the UCI and if RFEC did decide to investigate, it would have been a gross miscarriage of justice.

The case began with Mayo's non-negative "A" sample test from last year's Tour de France, which was tested
at the Châtenay-Malabry lab in France. This is the same lab which came under serious scrutiny after allegations arose that it mishandled Floyd Landis' samples after the 2006 Tour de France. Mayo requested that the "B" sample be tested, and it was, at a laboratory in Ghent, Belgium. The Ghent lab said that the test on the "B" sample was inconclusive, and in most cases this would mean that the charges would be dropped.

However, the UCI, fearing that this would seriously damaged the credibility of the Châtenay-Malabry lab, sent it back to the same lab to test the "B" sample again. Now, I am no expert in the science of drug controls, but it wouldn't seem like a good idea to retest the same sample multiple times. More importantly, why would the UCI send it back to the same lab whose credibility was questioned if they didn't want to cover for that lab? Obviously, if the UCI had sent it to another lab, say the UCLA lab, and they had confirmed the Ghent lab's result, this would have shattered the credibility of the Châtenay-Malabry lab and damaged the case against Floyd Landis, both of whose samples were tested there. Naturally, the UCI announced that the French lab's result was a non-negative.

In short, I feel that the Châtenay-Malabry lab needs to have not only a complete personnel review in the wake
of several leaks to the French sports daily L'Equipe, but it needs to be stripped of its UCI accreditation until it has done a full review of all its operations. Morover, the head of the UCI's anti-doping department, Anne Gripper, needs to be fired, and the UCI President, Pat McQuaid, needs to be impeached or forced out. They have been the central figures in this witch hunt of Iban Mayo. They have lost all credibility in my eyes, and I cannot take anything they say seriously any more. Not only is McQuaid an incompetent fool and an idiot in his dealings with the Grand Tour organizers (ASO, RCS, and Unipublic) with regards to the ProTour, he has led two attempts by the UCI to destroy riders' credibility and livelihood based on suspicious, at best, testing procedures at labs with vested interests in non-negative results.

I have no more time for stupid organization and incompetence at the UCI. We, the fans, want to win this war on doping, and we want to win it the right way. We want to catch the cheats, but only the cheats. There need not be any "collateral damage" in the War on Drugs. McQuaid seems to think that by going after lots of high-profile riders using suspect evidence, young riders will be too scared to get within 100 meters of an EPO syringe. If anything, his actions will only discourage young riders from looking to go pro, which will seriously damage the quality of professional cycling around the world. I, for one, would be much less likely to become a professional (if I had the talent) because of McQuaid's witch hunt.

The bad news in this story is, however, that the UCI has appealed RFEC's decision to the Court of Arbitration for Sport. This is another stupid move by McQuaid & co. because even if CAS does side with them, it has no means by which to force RFEC to investigate the case. In that case, RFEC should refuse to investigate and the national federations should break away from the UCI. It is not the head of cycling, that is the fans. It is merely an infected arm, which, when amputated, will bother our system no longer.

2008 Tour de France Preview

2008-01-07T20:07:00.000-05:00

We're about seven months away from Le Grand Depart of the Tour de France 2008, so I decided to write up a short preview. I'll go much more in-depth when the Tour is closer and the full details are announced. Expect a Preliminary Giro d'Italia preview as well in a few weeks, once the route is announced. Going by recent Giro routes, its going to be excellent.

The Route of the 2008 Tour de France.

When I first saw the route of the 2008 Tour, I was very disappointed. Only two serious summit finishes, no Mont Ventoux, and no Plateau de Beille, Luz Ardiden, or Pla d'Adet. Even this afternoon I was looking at the route and was distinctly displeased with it. However, I have come to see the benefits of next year's route. For one, it gives my man Alessandro Petacchi several more chances to win Tour stages. Also, the Tour includes several arduous stages through the Massif Central, which could give breakaways a good chance to take a stage or two in the opening week. Most importantly, the backloaded nature of the route means that we will probably not know the destiny of the final yellow jersey until the end of the stage to l'Alpe d'Huez, at the earliest, and probably after the final Time Trial. I'm assuming, of course, that Alberto Contador or Damiano Cunego doesn't launch a devastating attack on the first big mountain stage to the top of the Hautacam climb in the Pyrenees. You may ask why I assume this, and its simple, really. I suspect the field for next year's Tour will be one of the deepest in years, and as such no rider would dare putting all of his cards on the table on the first mountain stage.

Week One: Le Grand Depart

Next year's Tour starts in the cycling homeland of France, Brittany, the home region of Tour legend and five-time winner Bernard "The Badger" Hinault. Although the first stages are fairly flat, the contenders will have to be wary of Brittany's famous winds - a rider who is caught out during crosswinds could see himself losing anywhere from one to five minutes on a single stage. The fourth stage is the first big test: an individual time trial around the city of Cholet. This is an opportunity for a strong time triallist like Cadel Evans, Michael Rogers, or Vladimir Karpets to throw down the gauntlet and put serious time into the climbers before the first foray into the mountains. A short stage as Tour Time Trials go, at just 29 km, it still offers a really powerful man in the mold of Miguel Indurain a perfect chance to seize the yellow jersey. The next four stages are undulating or flat south and then west across the Massif Central to the foot of the Pyrenees.

Week Two: Into the Mountains

Col de Peyresourde - 13.2 km @ 7.1%

Col d’Aspin - 12.1 km @ 6.6%

The ninth stage of the 2008 Tour de France is the first of five mountain stages. As Tour mountain stages go, it is only moderately difficult. However it is a very long stage at 222 km, and after several long and probably hot days (remember, it is July) through the center of France, this stage will really hurt the riders' legs. A strong breakaway group will probably win the stage after a crazy chase down the descent of the Col d'Aspin. The other major possibility is that one rider, perhaps Christophe Moreau, will go hunting for King of the Mountains points today, and win the stage as a result. The major contenders will sit back and keep their powder dry for the next stage.

Col du Tourmalet - 17.7 km @ 7.5%

Hautacam - 14,2 km @ 7.2%

Stage 10 will be a critical stage. If any of the climbers have aspirations of winning overall, they must strike here. However, they must measure their efforts carefully because there are still many battles yet to come. Even though it is a short stage at just 154 kilometers, it features two very well known climbs. The final climb of Hautacam is where Lance Armstrong vanquished Marco Pantani and Jose Maria Jiminez in the 2000 Tour. The Col du Tourmalet is the most legendary of all the Pyreneean climbs, and the first mountain pass ever crossed by the Tour de France, way back in 1910. Even now it is feared, an 18-kilometer monster which tops out at well over 2000 meters. One of the Spanish or Italian climbers will probably win this stage, but I would be surprised to see time gaps much larger than a minute to the other major contenders. Hautacam is not an easy climb by any means, but it is not as hard several climbs yet to come.

After a Rest Day in Pau, the riders cross the south of France in four fairly flat stages which will determine the real contenders for the Sprinters' green points jersey before four hard days in the Alps. The peloton will probably let a breakaway win one or two of these stages, but there will still be a furious fight behind for every point on offer.

Week Three: Crunch Time

Col de Larche / Maddalena - 16.1 km @ 4%

Prato Nevoso - 11.1 km @ 7,1%

The third mountain stage of the Tour is a fairly straightforward climb over the Southern Alps up to the Italian town of Prato Nevoso. I wouldn't be surprised if one of the climbers who was caught off guard on the stage to Hautacam blitzed the field and won here. Barring that, It will probably come down to one of the Italian climbers, Cunego or Piepoli, to win the stage.

Col de la Lombarde - 21.2 km @ 7%

Col de la Bonette-Restefond - 26.7 km
@ 6.2%

After a second and final rest day, the Tour riders will venture out from the Italian city of Cuneo, back across the Alps into France on a huge mountain stage. This stage is almost entirely either climbing or descending, but the serious climbing starts about 50 kilometers in, with the huge climb of the Col de la Lombarde. This is immediately followed by an even bigger climb to the high point of the 2008 Tour at 2802 meters, the Col de la Bonnette-Restefond. After the riders cross the summit, they have a fast 22-kilometer descent into the town of Jausiers. The winner of this stage will be the most daring climber with the best descending skills because after claiming the Souvenir Henri Desgrange (a prize awarded to the rider first over the highest mountain in the Tour and named after the race's founder) the leader will still have to contend with a tricky descent to the finish. If Paolo "Il Falco" Salvodelli is within a minute of the leaders at the top of the Bonnette-Restefond, he would be a good bet to win this stage, as he is arguably the best descender int he world.

Col du Galibier - 20.9 km @ 5.6%

Col de la Croix de Fer - 29.2 km @ 5.2%

L’Alpe d’Huez - 13.3 km @ 8.6%

Here it is, at long last. The queen stage of the 2008 Tour de France, from Embrun to the most famous climb in world cycling, L'Alpe d'Huez. The 21 infamous switchback turns of the Alpe will see many a contender fall by the wayside, and could decide the fate of the final yellow jersey. The stage begins with a long undulating section before the riders face the first test of the day, the Col du Galibier. The riders climb it from the "easier" side this year, and descend the harder side. After the Galibier, the peloton will climb the Col de la Croix de Fer (French for "The pass with the iron cross"). The early morning breakaway riders will try to hang on over the Croix de Fer, in hope of snatching a win on the Alpe, as Frank Schleck did in 2006. However, the pace in the peloton will be very high as they come through the town of Bourg d'Oisans at the foot of the Alpe. On the climb the attacks will come thick and fast, with all of the remaining contenders looking to put time into their rivals. It should be an epic stage, and as a result I won't dare to predict who will win it. I do suspect, however, that it will be either one of the Spanish or Italian climbers.

After the queen stage, the riders venture out of the Alps on stage 18, before an undulating stage to Montlucon. These two stages will probably determine the final winner of the green jersey, but the way the competition has gone these past few years, it could all come down to the final sprint on the Champs-Eysees.

The final time trial of the 2008 Tour de France will be the last shakedown of the overall standings before the final day's stage into Paris. If all goes well, we will see a huge battle for the final yellow jersey enacted between Cerilly and Saint-Armond-Montrond. It is a long time trial at 53 kilometers and a good time triallist could make up 2 minutes quite easily. As such, I think this stage, just like the Alpe three days before, could go down as a classic in the history of the Tour.

The final stage into Paris is traditionally quiet until the riders hit the Champs-Elysees for the first of 8 circuits. Everyone has a bit of fun and chats for the first 75 kilometers or so and enjoys their last day of racing together. However, when the first riders hit the bone-shaking cobbles of the Champs, the attacks will start. Lap after lap the sprinters' teams will try to chase down each successive breakaway. Rarely do breaks win on the Champs, and the race will probably come down to a big bunch sprint, with every sprinter in the pack looking for his moment to shine. Hopefully that gentleman will be my man Alessandro Petacchi, but I doubt it :( .

I hope that next year's Tour de France will be an exciting, scintillating, and most importantly drug-free affair. Forza Petacchi and Vive Le Tour!

2007 Year in Review & Awards

2008-01-05T12:41:00.000-05:00

Season Review

2007, what a year it was for professional cycling. Fantastic racing which was sadly overshadowed by more drug scandals. The early season classics were a joy to behold, as was the Giro. The Dauphine Libere was a bit of a let down because, once again, the "big boys" decided to keep their powder dry for le Tour. Speaking of which, it was a fantastic race to watch. Despite the expulsions of Rasmussen (ex-Rabobank) and Vinokourov (ex-Astana), the Pyreneean stages were some of the most exciting cycling I saw last year. August and September showed once again how badly the calendar needs to be revamped. Too many races in too short of a time. Chapeau to Christophe Moreau (ag2r) and Thomas Voeckler (Bouygues Telecom) for their great, attacking wins in the Dauphine and the GP Ouest France-Plouay, respectively. It would be great to see France make a renaissance in cycling; we haven't seen a Frenchman seriously challenge for a Grand Tour win since Richard Virenque (then Festina) in 1997. However, there don't seem to be any real up-and-coming French prospects in road cycling.

The latter part of the season was pretty interesting, although la Vuelta was more or less a wash for Denis
Menchov (Rabobank). Three stages combined for Peta' and Erik made this Milram fan happy. Serious props to Menchov for salvaging his season after working like an ox for Rasmussen in le Tour. Bennati's form over the latter part of the season should have merited a place in the Italian team for the Worlds, but the FCI Directeur Sportif Franco Ballerini built his team around Paolo Bettini (Quick.Step) and it paid off . Two World Championships in two years for Il Grillo and I can see him retiring this year if he wins another Olympic title. The late season classics were overshadowed by the polemics between Danilo di Luca (Liquigas) and the UCI. His involvement in the Oil for Drugs scandal resulted in a farcical 4-month ban, but, more importantly, the loss of his ProTour leaders' jersey to Cadel Evans. Evans certainly deserved the win for his form and tremendous grit over the course of the season, but he surely would rather have won it in a different way. Petacchi (Milram) took his first win in Paris-Tours while Damiano Cunego (Lampre-Fondital) closed the season with his second win in the Giro di Lombardia after beating one of the revelations of the season, Ricardo Ricco (Saunier Duval) in the sprint.

The Six-Day season was once again dominated by the Swiss duo of Bruno Risi and Franco Marvulli. Although Erik Zabel & Leif Lampater gave them a good run in the early part of the campaign, their domination was finally broken by Iljo Keisse and Robert Bartko in Ghent. The British, Dutch and French reigned supreme in the first two Track World Cups and are surely expecting a big haul in the Worlds and Olympics this year. One of my favorite riders, Chris Hoy (GB) has done a fantastic job of transitioning from a World Champion in the 1 kilometer Time Trial to a challenger for the same in the Keirin; big ups to Chris for that, and I hope, as he does, that the UCI has the sense to bring back the "kilo" (although we must remember that this is the UCI we're talking about).

Cyclocross has once again been the personal domain of "King 'Cross", Sven Nys. Although he suffered a few defeats in the early part of the season, including Neils Alberts Superprestige win in Gieten, which ended Nys' streak of 13 consecutive Superprestige victories, his dominance over the Christmas/New Year's period has shown that he is still the best 'Cross rider in the world.

2007 Awards:

Best Cyclo-Cross Rider: Sven Nys (Rabobank), for his ability to seemingly win at will.

Best Track Rider: Tie between Chris Hoy (GB), because of his incredible ability to transition from the best "kilo" rider in the world to the best Keirin rider, and the duo of Risi (SUI) and Marvulli (SUI) for their domination of the Six-Days.

Best Stage Race: le Tour de France, for all of the drama that surrounded it and the cliff-hanger of an ending.

Best One-Day Race: Tie between Paris-Roubaix and de Ronde van Vlaanderen, for their gritty winners and great attacking cycling.

Best Grand Tour Route for 2008: Il Giro d'Italia, for the simple audacity of having a mountain time trial up the Kronplatz.

Best Moment: The final 10 kilometers of de Ronde, because of the fantastic suspense and Ballan's amazing come-from-behind win.

Bike of the Year: Cervelo SLC-SL, it is simply the fastest and most beautiful bike on the market today. I love the styling of the Pinarello Prince, but the SLC-SL's aerodynamics seal it for me.

Most Improved Rider: Cadel Evans (Predictor-Lotto), for going from a Grand Tour also-ran to a serious challenger.

Most Underrated Rider: Alessandro Petacchi (Milram); for the last three years people have been predicting the fall of Ale-Jet, but once again it has failed to occur.

Most Underperforming Rider: Damiano Cunego (Lampre-Fondital). I love the guy, he's a great attacking rider who can climb and sprint, but he hasn't showed up in the Giro since he won in 2004.

Worst Rider of the Year: Tie between Alexandre Vinokourov (ex-Astana) and Michael Rasmussen (ex-Rabobank), for obvious reasons.

Revelation of the Year: Andy Schleck (CSC); second in the Giro and the Best Young rider. Expect big things from this kid in the coming years.

Legend of Cycling: Peter van Petegem (Predictor-Lotto), who retired this year, was a fantastic rider in the early season classics, a great rival of Johan Museeuw, and one of few men to win de Ronde and Paris-Roubaix in the same season.

Best Female Road Rider: Tie between Marianne Vos (DSB Bank), for showing everyone why she deserved to be the World Champion last year and for her win in the World Cup, and Nicole Cooke (Raleigh-LifeForce), who would have won this award handily if she hadn't been injured for the latter part of the season and lost the World Cup as a result, in the final race.

Best Male Road Rider: Alberto Contador (Discovery Channel); although he only rode a few races, he won when it counted and was very exciting in the Pyrenees during the Tour. I think the 2010 Tour may be a duel between Contador and Andy Schleck, and what a race that will be!

Best Road Team: CSC barely squeaks this over Lampre-Fondital, who were very consistent and always threatening throughout the course of the season. The Danish-based team wins because of their better GC performances in the Grand Tours.

Rider of the Year: Cadel Evans (Predictor-Lotto), for his amazing consistency and because he fought so hard for his high places in the Tour and Vuelta. He is one rider who I have no doubt is clean; he finished second in the Tour because of sheer determination in the Pyrenees and the final time trial.

Congratulations to all the winners and here's to a fantastic (and clean) season of racing in 2008!

Explaining Cycling, Part 3 of 6: Cyclocross

2007-11-27T19:56:00.000-05:00

Known to fans simply as 'cross, cyclocross is a blend of road cycling and mountain biking. 'Cross bikes are essentially the same as road bikes, but with a wider front fork and more space between the seatstays and chainstays to allow for wider tires. The handlebars are standard road drop handlebars, but 'cross riders generally use smaller gear ratios because of the sharp, steep climbs which characterize 'cross courses.

'Cross courses are generally short, from 1 to 4 kilometers, and races generally last from around 20-30 minutes (amateurs) to 1 hour (Elite Men). Courses usually feature obstacles which riders either have to dismount and carry their bikes over, or bunny hop over.

Bunny hopping is a difficult and complicated maneuver which can either save time or make the rider look very foolish. There are also frequently sand pits which the riders can either ride or run through, while carrying their bikes on their shoulders.

Cyclocross courses also commonly feature stairs which the riders must run up, also carrying their bikes on their shoulders.

American Johnathan Page at the top of set of stairs, 2006 Cyclocross World Championships.

The final major element or 'cross courses is the steep climbs. Some, including the infamous "bridge" at the Pijnacker course in Holland have gradients in excess of 30%. This short climbs are launch pads for strong riders like Sven Nys or Bart Wellens to attack the field.

'Cross fields are generally fairly diverse, although the Belgians have dominated in recent years, winning the
last 7 World Championships.

Four Belgians lead the field in the World Championships.

However, don't think that the races aren't competitive. Because 'cross is an individual sport, the Belgian "team" isn't really a team at all. They will attack each other as much as they can, from the starting gun to the final sprint.

Explaining Cycling, Part 2 of 6: Six-Day Racing

2007-11-19T23:20:00.000-05:00

The six-days are the heart of track racing, and we're right in the middle of the season right now. The six-days are really a series of Madison races (see the explanation thereof in Part 1) with other track races (also explained in Part 1) between them. The six-day team consists of two riders who swap out racing the Madison and slowly riding around the top of the track. They swap places when the racer grabs the hand of the other rider and slings him up to race speed. Sprints for points are held every 20 laps, and the team on the lead lap with the most points at the end wins. Even if a team has more points, if they are a lap down, they do not win.

Explaining Cycling, Part 1 of 6: Track Cycling Basics

2007-11-14T18:45:00.000-05:00

The Velodrome

All track cycling events are held in Velodromes. The shortest velodromes are 200 meters and have very steep banking, while the longest are 450 meters and have shallow banking (most of these are also outside). An Olympic standard Velodrome is 250 meters long, is inside, and has the track made of wood (most outdoor tracks are concrete).

The Equipment

Almost all riders wear aerodynamic, one-piece skinsuits to reduce drag (even stationary air in an indoor velodrome has an impact). Track bikes are incredibly stiff, as weight doesn't make that much of a difference. There are no brakes, and the crankset and pedals are attached directly to the rear wheel (in other words, if the bike is moving, you are pedaling). The bikes for the Madison, Match Sprint, Olympic Sprint, Keirin, and Points race have standard track frames and drop handlebars. The bikes for the 1 Kilometer Time Trial (Men), 500 Meter Time Trial, Individual Pursuit, and Team Pursuit have similar frames but aerodynamic handlebars.

The Events

Match Sprint
Held over 1000 meters, the Match Sprint is generally considered the "purest" track event. It involves two riders, one of whom is designated to lead the first lap, unless the other rider passes him. The two riders ride slowly around the track for the first two or three laps, before one of them starts their explosive sprint to the line. In the World Championships and other major events, it is a best-of-three competition.

1-Kilometer Time Trial (Men)/500 Meter Time Trial
A very fast and simple event. Riders ride 4 laps (or 2 for the women) of an Olympic Velodrome and are timed. Fastest time wins. The present World Record for the men is held by Arnaud Tournant of France, who covered the kilometer in just 58.875 seconds, for an average speed of over 60 kph.

Olympic Sprint
The Olympic sprint is a three lap event with teams of three riders each. All three start together, but after each lap, the first rider pulls off of the track and the remaining rider (s) continue. This means that the first rider does one lap, the second two laps and the third three laps. Each team is timed and the fastest time wins.

Keirin
The Keirin is one of the strangest track events. Held over 2000 meters (8 laps), the first 5 1/2 laps are paced by a small motorbike which increases the speed from 25 kph up to 45 kph before it pulls off of the track. The final two and a half laps are an insane sprint to the finish, which can include some serious accidents. The first rider across the line wins.

Individual Pursuit
The Mens' Pursuit is over 4 kilometers, while the Womens' is 3 kilometers. Two riders start on opposite sides of the Velodrome, and the rider with the fastest time wins.

Team Pursuit
The principle is the same as that of the Individual Pursuit and it is a mens' only event held over 4 kilometers. Two teams start on opposite sides of the track and the team with the fastest time wins. Germany are the current record holders, averaging over 60 kph.

Madison
A Mens' only event held over 50 to 60 kilometers (200-240 laps), it gets its name from the arena where it was first held, New York's Madison Square Garden. Two man teams participate in the Madison, with only one man racing at a time. The other one rides slowly around at the top of the banking until his team-mate slings him into the race. This is a delicate and dangerous maneuver, which can cause a serious accident if one of the riders makes a mistake. The intent, however, is to get the slower-moving rider up to speed on the track. Sprints are held every 20 laps, and points are given to each of the first four places (1st-5, 2nd-3, 3rd-2, 4th-1) and the last lap counts for double points. However, if a team manages to lap the field, they automatically win because points only serve as a tiebreaker for teams on the same lap.

Points Race
Similar to the Madison, but it is an individual event for both Men and Women and held over a shorter distance (it varies). Sprints are held every 10 laps (the point distribution is the same), and the last lap also counts for double points. If a rider laps the field, they get 20 points. If a rider is lapped by the field, they lose 20 points (this is why you sometimes see negative scores).

Worlds Recap

2007-10-02T23:01:00.000-04:00

In case you've been living under a rock, you've heard that Paolo Bettini (Quickstep-Innergetic) won the Mens' Worlds Road Race on Sunday in Stuttgart. Here's a recap of the podiums:

U23 Men Time Trial:

1 Lars Boom (Netherlands)                          48.58 (46.86 km/h)
2 Mikhail Ignatiev (Russia)                         0.09
3 Jerome Coppel (France)                            0.46

Elite Women Time Trial:

1 Hanka Kupfernagel (Germany)                     34.43.8 (43.432 km/h)
2 Kristin Armstrong (United States of America)     0.23.5
3 Christiane Soeder (Austria)                      0.41.5

Elite Men Time Trial:

1 Fabian Cancellara (Switzerland)         55.41.3 (48.380 km/h)
2 Laszlo Bodrogi (Hungary)                 0.52.1
3 Stef Clement (Netherlands)               0.57.8

U23 Men Road Race:

1 Peter Velits (Slovakia)                         4.21.22 (39.461 km/h)
2 Wesley Sulzberger (Australia)                         
3 Jonathan Bellis (Great Britain)

Elite Women Road Race:

1 Marta Bastianelli (Italy)                  3.46.34 (35.406 km/h)
2 Marianne Vos (Netherlands)                    0.06
3 Giorgia Bronzini (Italy)

Elite Men Road Race:

1 Paolo Bettini (Italy)                                        6.44.43 (39.642 km/h)
2 Alexandr Kolobnev (Russian Federation)                             
3 Stefan Schumacher (Germany)

Medals By Country:

1)Italy (3: 2 Gold, 1 Bronze)
2)Netherlands (3: 1 Gold, 1 Silver, 1 Bronze)
3)Germany (2: 1 Gold, 1 Bronze)
4)Russia (2: 2 Silver)
5)Switzerland (1: 1 Gold)
6)Slovakia (1: 1 Gold)
7)Hungary (1: 1 Silver)
8)Australia (1: 1 Silver)
9)U.S.A. (1: 1 Silver)
10)Great Britain (1: 1 Bronze)
11)Austria (1: 1 Bronze)
12)France (1: 1 Bronze)

Established Cycling Nations vs. Everybody Else
(Italy, Netherlands, Germany, Switzerland, France, Austria vs. USA, Russia, Australia, Great Britain, Slovakia, Hungary)
1)Established Nations (11: 5 Gold, 1 Silver, 5 Bronze)
2)Everybody Else (7: 1 Gold, 5 Silver, 1 Bronze)

As you can see, the big cycling nations, especially the squadra azzuri, the Dutch and Germans dominated this years' worlds. The US women were quite disappointing after last year's fabulous showing. France has once again flattered to deceive and were terrible in the Mens' Road Race, with their best place going to Ludovic Turpin in 41st, in the bunch 49" behind Bettini. Big props to Peter Velits for winning big for Slovakia, and to the Russians for their overall solid performance. Italy has once again been the best nation in cycling this year, and hopefully Enrico Franzoi can do well for them as the cyclocross season heats up. I'll be back for either a preview or review of Paris-Tours and the early season 'cross racing.

Forza azzuri e Bettini!

Predictions Part #2

2007-09-18T21:19:00.001-04:00

Stage 19:
The queen stage of this year's Vuelta, a massive one to the Alto de Abantos. The Abantos is not a consistently difficult climb, but the first couple of k's have grades of 10-19%. If Carlos Sastre (CSC) thinks he can win this Vuelta, that is where he needs to attack, as much of the rest of the climb is much more suited to malliot amarillo Denis Menchov (Rabobank). He is the leader, and it is up to everyone else to attack him. I expect a pure climber of some order (probably Sastre) to win the stage while Menchov will be well protected by his Rabo' teammates throughout the stage.

Stage 20:
The Vuelta's final time trial is a short (20km/12 miles) pancake flat hammerfest around Collado Villalba. Looking through the strong time triallists left in this field, there are only two men who I can see winning this stage: Denis Menchov and Cadel Evans (Predictor-Lotto). Menchov already has a couple of stages in the bag, so he may well sit back a tad, knowing that he will win the race overall the next day in Madrid. Evans, on the other hand, will surely be looking for a stage win, so he can take something from this Vuelta. So probably Evans for me, even though I'm sure he's tired after a long season.

Stage 21:
The final stage is a pretty flat parade into Madrid. A short stage at just over 100 kilometers (60 miles), it will be a battle between Alessandro Petacchi (Milram) and Daniele Bennati (Lampre) on the same straight where Tom Boonen won the Worlds two years ago. Petacchi for the stage, but Bennati will win the points jersey.

Final predictions:

Overall:
1)Denis Menchov
2)Cadel Evans
3)Carlos Sastre

KOM:
1)Carlos Sastre
2)Denis Menchov
3)Jurgen Van Goolen (Discovery Channel)

Points:
1)Daniele Bennati
2)Alessandro Petacchi
3)Erik Zabel (Milram)

Combination:
1)Denis Menchov
2)Cadel Evans
3)Carlos Sastre

Teams:
1)Euskalel-Euskadi
2)Team CSC
3)Caisse d'Epargne

I'll try to do a cyclocross season preview soon...hopefully by Monday.

Vuelta Rest Day #2 Wrap-up and Predictions

2007-09-17T22:07:00.000-04:00

A fairly nondescript week of racing in la Vuelta, lots of Spanish sun and short climbs. Ale-Jet won two stages and was followed by three breakaway wins from teams which have so far had poor Vueltas: T-Mobile, Disco, and Euskaltel. The heavily backloaded Vuelta parcours (its all going down in the last 4 stages) has meant only one attack by a GC rider (Sammy Sanchez of Euskaltel) whereas normally, these middle stages contain the epic mountains where the Vuelta is decided. The level-headed Russian Denis Menchov seems to be bulletproof overall, limiting his losses to Sanchez to just 41" and being very attentive on the road to Torre-Pacheco when Caisse suddenly hit the front in the last 40 ks and blew the peloton to pieces. Menchov was right where he needed to be, and didn't waste any energy.

My predictions:

Stage 16:

An undualting stage which will probably end in either a big sprint finish (If the sprinters can get over the Puerto de los Rehoyos within a minute of the leaders) or a small group dash from a long breakaway. I'm taking Petacchi if its a sprint, and I'm not even going to try to predict a specific rider to win from a long break. All I'll say is that Liquigas has been underperforming a bit in this Vuelta....Stage 17:

A pretty much pancake flat stage which will almost certainly end in a sprint finish with Bennati battling Petacchi for the points jersey. One of those men will probably win the stage, as Lampre and Milram respectively will chase down all of the breaks and they have proven themselves the two best sprinters in the race.

Stage 18:

A tough stage before the final foray into the mountains. The GC contenders will be keeping their powder dry for the fireworks on the Abantos the next day. Probably a long breakaway will win the day with a bunch of strong climbers. My pick is Damiano Cunego or Christian Vande Velde.

I'll preview the last 3 stages (19, 20, and 21) tomorrow.