1)Schleck and Contador think they have this in the bag. Watching them sit up off the back of the leaders' group today solely to track each other was ridiculous. That kind of riding can quite easily cost them the race - Menchov and Sanchez nearly made them pay dearly today, that pair could have taken thirty seconds or more and were unfortunate to only seize about fifteen. Schleck and Contador are the strongest men in the race, but that doesn't make winning automatic.
2)The French are having a cracking Tour. Four stage wins, a couple of days in yellow, and they've owned the polka-dot jersey...well, never mind with that last point (see #5). Even so, they have their best win haul in some time and those wins have been hard-fought ones as well. While it doesn't look like they'll win the Tour any time soon, at least they are seeing some success in their home race.
3)Alexander Vinokourov is the worst teammate ever. It's not news but it was emphasized today - instead of setting a vicious tempo, he attacked. Just like when he was at T-Mobile, the only way he knows how to race is to attack. It's very exciting and great to watch as a fan (although a bit less so now that he's been exposed as a cheat), but it can't be good for the leader he's supposed to be "pacing".
4)Dennis Menchov could win the Tour. I'm serious. He's about two and three-quarter minutes back, but if he can chip of a few more seconds from Schleck and Contador in the Pyrenees, which seems reasonable based on their tactics today, he could nick this in the final time trial. Menchov beat Contador by fifty seconds over a slightly shorter effort during the Dauphine, and that was a much hillier course that would have suited Contador more then Menchov. A minute and a half would not be an unreasonable time gain for the former Vuelta winner.
5)The King of the Mountains jersey is a joke. Charteau is quite clearly the only guy who cares about it at this point, and he's a thoroughly mediocre climber. It's a sad state of affairs when this guy is leading the KoM classification rather comfortably is plainly nowhere near the top level of the climbers.
Sunday, July 18, 2010
Friday, July 16, 2010
Quick Five: Stages 11 & 12
Apologies for the lack of a post yesterday - I was fried after work and went straight to bed.
1)We have a race. It was starting to look like the difficult mass-start stages would simply see Schleck and Contador keep each other in check, but the Astana captain shattered that today with his attack on the climb outside of Mende. Contador could probably have gone on to win the Tour in the final time trial by simply staying with Schleck, but he wants to win the race clearly, as he did last year and in 2007. He doesn't want to appear second-best on his favoured terrain of the mountains, and if he is as strong on Sunday as he was today, the end of that stage could be a cracker. However, Schleck was a bit slow to react and lost most of the ten seconds he conceded in the first meters of Contador's attack - it was hardly a comprehensive beating.
2)Mark Renshaw is a thug. The headbutt on Julian Dean was pretty bad, but check out what he did after Cavendish opened up the sprint - he closed the door very dangerously on Tyler Farrar and nearly pushed the Garmin rider into the barriers (thanks to my friend Kellen for pointing that one out). First, a totally unnecessary and dangerous headbutt, and then an equally dangerous maneuver that almost caused a very bad crash. A fully deserved disqualification all around.
3)It's a lot easier to tough things out when you're doped. Tyler Farrar tried to be the hard-man hero of the race, riding for a week with a fractured wrist, but found it too much to bear today. Unlike another American Tyler, Hamilton, Farrar's injury was a bit more serious in cycling terms, and (we hope) he wasn't nearly as juiced. Had he been, he should have picked up a couple of stage wins. For all of Hamilton's bravery and balls, his task was made much easier by the fact that he was substantially more doped than Farrar (again, I'm assuming here, but I think it's fair to make such an assumption).
4)Vintage Vino is gone. The old Vino would have won today's stage, teammate chasing him down or not. The old Vino would have hung with Contador and demanded the stage win. He is a hollow shell of a rider, and I couldn't be happier that he was overhauled before the line. As a former Vino fan who felt betrayed by him, I did not want to see a win for him and was pleasantly surprised that he got caught.
5)Petacchi will give Hushovd an excellent challenge for green. As I said on Wednesday, he looks to be in great form and picked up the green jersey after Stage 11. While he relinquished it to Hushovd today, he was up with the top riders through the first kilometer of the Monteé Laurent Jalabert, an incredible show for a big sprinter like him. Now that Mark Cavendish is without his lead-out man Renshaw, Petacchi should have a better shot at a third stage win tomorrow. He also looks a better bet to get over the small climb near the finish in a good position.
1)We have a race. It was starting to look like the difficult mass-start stages would simply see Schleck and Contador keep each other in check, but the Astana captain shattered that today with his attack on the climb outside of Mende. Contador could probably have gone on to win the Tour in the final time trial by simply staying with Schleck, but he wants to win the race clearly, as he did last year and in 2007. He doesn't want to appear second-best on his favoured terrain of the mountains, and if he is as strong on Sunday as he was today, the end of that stage could be a cracker. However, Schleck was a bit slow to react and lost most of the ten seconds he conceded in the first meters of Contador's attack - it was hardly a comprehensive beating.
2)Mark Renshaw is a thug. The headbutt on Julian Dean was pretty bad, but check out what he did after Cavendish opened up the sprint - he closed the door very dangerously on Tyler Farrar and nearly pushed the Garmin rider into the barriers (thanks to my friend Kellen for pointing that one out). First, a totally unnecessary and dangerous headbutt, and then an equally dangerous maneuver that almost caused a very bad crash. A fully deserved disqualification all around.
3)It's a lot easier to tough things out when you're doped. Tyler Farrar tried to be the hard-man hero of the race, riding for a week with a fractured wrist, but found it too much to bear today. Unlike another American Tyler, Hamilton, Farrar's injury was a bit more serious in cycling terms, and (we hope) he wasn't nearly as juiced. Had he been, he should have picked up a couple of stage wins. For all of Hamilton's bravery and balls, his task was made much easier by the fact that he was substantially more doped than Farrar (again, I'm assuming here, but I think it's fair to make such an assumption).
4)Vintage Vino is gone. The old Vino would have won today's stage, teammate chasing him down or not. The old Vino would have hung with Contador and demanded the stage win. He is a hollow shell of a rider, and I couldn't be happier that he was overhauled before the line. As a former Vino fan who felt betrayed by him, I did not want to see a win for him and was pleasantly surprised that he got caught.
5)Petacchi will give Hushovd an excellent challenge for green. As I said on Wednesday, he looks to be in great form and picked up the green jersey after Stage 11. While he relinquished it to Hushovd today, he was up with the top riders through the first kilometer of the Monteé Laurent Jalabert, an incredible show for a big sprinter like him. Now that Mark Cavendish is without his lead-out man Renshaw, Petacchi should have a better shot at a third stage win tomorrow. He also looks a better bet to get over the small climb near the finish in a good position.
Wednesday, July 14, 2010
Quick Five: Stage 10
1)Mark Cavendish cares about the green jersey. The biggest surprise of the day was seeing the "Manx Missile" flexing his calves for a mere ninth place. For a rider who sits up when it's clear the win has gone in a bunch sprint, it was rather uncharacteristic for him to put in the work for a few points. However, even though he picked up the best placing in the field, he's still forty points behind Thor Hushovd and will need to win almost every remaining flat stage to take the green jersey.
2)This is a very hard Tour. Every Tour has a few quiet stages, and today was one of those. However, the entire pack looked much more gassed - and probably a bit scared - than usual. In the break, too, the riders looked pretty tired. Aerts didn't even try to sprint for third place, and neither Paulinho nor Kiriyenka tried to attack before the sprint, even though it would have been a better move for the RadioShack man. The two brutal days in the Alps have tired out the field, and they are worried about the long stretch in the Pyrenees.
3)Alessandro Petacchi is a damn sight better than expected. Ale-Jet has pretty firmly established himself as the second-best sprinter in this year's Tour. While no one can catch Cavendish on his day, Petacchi's sprinting brain is significantly better and he's profited from that a couple of times. If he can survive the Pyrenees, he should be the biggest challenger to Hushovd for the green jersey.
4)French teams still base their tactics around getting on TV. That's the only sensible explanation for Nicolas Roche's attack today - why else would he have jumped out of the field and soloed about ten kilometers to the finish? Rémi Pauriol, too, had a go late on for no reason at all. Until the French teams stop focusing on publicity, they won't win anything more than a few stages in the Tour.
5)Concentration is still the most important mental attribute in cycling. Lost focus for a moment caused Kiriyenka to lose the stage today - once Paulinho had gapped him by almost two bike lengths, it would have required a Robbie McEwen-esque late burst to overhaul the Portuguese. And really, if you're going to focus for any part of the stage, it has to be when you're three hundred meters out in a two-up sprint.
2)This is a very hard Tour. Every Tour has a few quiet stages, and today was one of those. However, the entire pack looked much more gassed - and probably a bit scared - than usual. In the break, too, the riders looked pretty tired. Aerts didn't even try to sprint for third place, and neither Paulinho nor Kiriyenka tried to attack before the sprint, even though it would have been a better move for the RadioShack man. The two brutal days in the Alps have tired out the field, and they are worried about the long stretch in the Pyrenees.
3)Alessandro Petacchi is a damn sight better than expected. Ale-Jet has pretty firmly established himself as the second-best sprinter in this year's Tour. While no one can catch Cavendish on his day, Petacchi's sprinting brain is significantly better and he's profited from that a couple of times. If he can survive the Pyrenees, he should be the biggest challenger to Hushovd for the green jersey.
4)French teams still base their tactics around getting on TV. That's the only sensible explanation for Nicolas Roche's attack today - why else would he have jumped out of the field and soloed about ten kilometers to the finish? Rémi Pauriol, too, had a go late on for no reason at all. Until the French teams stop focusing on publicity, they won't win anything more than a few stages in the Tour.
5)Concentration is still the most important mental attribute in cycling. Lost focus for a moment caused Kiriyenka to lose the stage today - once Paulinho had gapped him by almost two bike lengths, it would have required a Robbie McEwen-esque late burst to overhaul the Portuguese. And really, if you're going to focus for any part of the stage, it has to be when you're three hundred meters out in a two-up sprint.
Tuesday, July 13, 2010
Quick Five: Stage 9
1)Brains still matter. Casar's stage win today was all about racing intelligence and good positioning. He knew how to take the finish and hit the front just at the right time, first through the corner and first over the line. Just like his last Tour stage win, it was based on making the right move, although this finish was much easier
2)This is not an old man's Tour, at least not for the GC. Evans and Lance have both suffered severely from the effects of crashes in the Alps, Klöden has had a few bad days and Basso isn't looking to sprightly. The only exception seems to be Christoph Moreau, who did a very good ride today, although he was towed in by the two strongest riders in the race.
3)Contador and Schleck are by far the strongest riders in the race. The two climbers have clearly shown that they are the top men in this Tour de France. None but each other can take their accelerations. Unfortunately for Schleck, he still doesn't have the kind of buffer over Contador to keep the yellow jersey through a long time trial. We have, however, seen some chinks in El Pistolero's armor, and Schleck will have plenty of opportunity to seek out and exploit them in the Pyrenees.
4)Sammy Sánchez is a top rider. For years we've seen him ride brilliantly in the Vuelta, but he has rarely animated races outside of his home country. Since his Olympic gold medal in Beijing, he's started to branch out a bit more, and this late bloomer could give a needed spark to the race in the final week. Watch out for him on the stage to Mende.
5)No good climber wants the polka-dot jersey. There's been no Virenque/Jalabert type long raid by a top mountain goat, and the GC men are still thoroughly uninterested in the King of the Mountains competition. As I've said for a long time, the only way to spice it up is by throwing in big (30 seconds to a minute) time bonuses at the top of climbs. The way things stand, a middling French rider looks like taking the polka-dots up to Paris.
2)This is not an old man's Tour, at least not for the GC. Evans and Lance have both suffered severely from the effects of crashes in the Alps, Klöden has had a few bad days and Basso isn't looking to sprightly. The only exception seems to be Christoph Moreau, who did a very good ride today, although he was towed in by the two strongest riders in the race.
3)Contador and Schleck are by far the strongest riders in the race. The two climbers have clearly shown that they are the top men in this Tour de France. None but each other can take their accelerations. Unfortunately for Schleck, he still doesn't have the kind of buffer over Contador to keep the yellow jersey through a long time trial. We have, however, seen some chinks in El Pistolero's armor, and Schleck will have plenty of opportunity to seek out and exploit them in the Pyrenees.
4)Sammy Sánchez is a top rider. For years we've seen him ride brilliantly in the Vuelta, but he has rarely animated races outside of his home country. Since his Olympic gold medal in Beijing, he's started to branch out a bit more, and this late bloomer could give a needed spark to the race in the final week. Watch out for him on the stage to Mende.
5)No good climber wants the polka-dot jersey. There's been no Virenque/Jalabert type long raid by a top mountain goat, and the GC men are still thoroughly uninterested in the King of the Mountains competition. As I've said for a long time, the only way to spice it up is by throwing in big (30 seconds to a minute) time bonuses at the top of climbs. The way things stand, a middling French rider looks like taking the polka-dots up to Paris.
Quick Five: Rest Day #1
1)Andy Schleck looks good. Damn good. Great acceleration yesterday to gap Contador and the others, and a fantastic kick to outsprint Sammy Sanchez, who is a good finisher. This kid is on form.
2)Lance is done. Yet another great champion has raced a Tour too many and it has proved his undoing - Armstrong at Morzine-Avoriaz was reminiscent of Indurain at Les Arcs or Merckx after Pra Loup. He has a great chance, now, to win the KOM classification, but he won't take it because he's too proud.
3)Contador has not convinced me. After a phenomenal job of work by Navarro on the final climb, he didn't attack, and didn't respond well when Schleck blasted off the front. The Contador of the last three years would have bridged that gap, sprinted past and won the stage.
4)Cav is done - no, he's back. After - God forbid! - four stages without a win, Mark Cavendish picked up a couple of stages as we expected. However, his pride has been his undoing in the green jersey, as he hasn't sprinted for the placings when it's been clear that the victory has gone. He could still win the maillot vert, but it will take some poor showing by Thor and several more stage wins - which are not guaranteed if Petacchi can get over the mountains.
5)Nobody knows tactics any more. Wiggins murdered his team yesterday for absolutely no reason at all, and then got dropped on the final climb. Garmin have set-up Cavendish at least once, probably twice. When Petacchi sprints around you, you have to go and grab his wheel right away. Don't ride behind guys who are getting musettes outside of the feed zone. This is basic stuff.
2)Lance is done. Yet another great champion has raced a Tour too many and it has proved his undoing - Armstrong at Morzine-Avoriaz was reminiscent of Indurain at Les Arcs or Merckx after Pra Loup. He has a great chance, now, to win the KOM classification, but he won't take it because he's too proud.
3)Contador has not convinced me. After a phenomenal job of work by Navarro on the final climb, he didn't attack, and didn't respond well when Schleck blasted off the front. The Contador of the last three years would have bridged that gap, sprinted past and won the stage.
4)Cav is done - no, he's back. After - God forbid! - four stages without a win, Mark Cavendish picked up a couple of stages as we expected. However, his pride has been his undoing in the green jersey, as he hasn't sprinted for the placings when it's been clear that the victory has gone. He could still win the maillot vert, but it will take some poor showing by Thor and several more stage wins - which are not guaranteed if Petacchi can get over the mountains.
5)Nobody knows tactics any more. Wiggins murdered his team yesterday for absolutely no reason at all, and then got dropped on the final climb. Garmin have set-up Cavendish at least once, probably twice. When Petacchi sprints around you, you have to go and grab his wheel right away. Don't ride behind guys who are getting musettes outside of the feed zone. This is basic stuff.
Sunday, July 11, 2010
Quick Tour Thought
Alright, I'm back, and it's good to be back. It is Tour time, and I'd like to take the opportunity to slate Mr. Bradley Wiggins for murdering his entire team and then losing a minute forty-five in the last 3k. Well done, sir.
Tuesday, May 27, 2008
Giro Finale Preview (Stages 17-21)
First off, I would like to apologize for my lack of diligence with regard to this blog of late. I've had a lot of schoolwork and, unfortunately, as much as I love writing about cycling, it has to be subordinate to other things I have to do. However, without further explanation/excuses, a Preview of the final 5 stages of this year's Giro. By the way, you can see the full versions of the images I post by clicking on them.
Stage 17: Sondrio - Locarno
This is the final stage of the Giro that looks like one for the sprinters, and I have to suspect that it will be a battle between the race's two top fastmen so far, Daniele Bennati (Lampre) and Mark Cavendish (High Road). Bennati has one stage more than the Brit so far, and I fancy him to get another tomorrow. He's been very fast so far and has the gift of a lot more experience than Cavendish, which I think will have helped him get through the high mountains in better shape.
Stage 18: Mendrisio - Varese
Another day of transition before three huge days to settle the General Classification, this one ends on another short climb. So far, these finishes have been dominated by the young Italian Ricardo Ricco (Saunier Duval), however, this climb averages just 2.5% over 5 kilometers, not exactly the steep finish that Ricco would favor. Still, the Saunier Duval rider knows that he needs to pull back time on the maglia rosa Alberto Contador whenever and wherever he can, and I think he will win this stage, and with the time bonuses, close the gap to his Spanish rival, setting up a huge three days of mano y mano combat in the Dolomites and the roads of Milan.
Stage 19: Legnano - Monte Pora
Stage 19 is an epic mountain stage and a fitting final summit finish for this year's Giro. Three massive climbs will shatter the peloton, and leave only the strongest men at the head of the race at the top of Monte Pora. So far the mountain stages have been dominated by CSF Navigare's Emmanuele Sella and the aforementioned Ricardo Ricco. However, I think the man who will break out of his shell on the big stage will be Caisse d'Epargne's Venezuelan enigma, Jose Rujano. Rujano has been getting stronger and stronger, and I think he will not be chased down by the big teams, who will be too concerned with battling each other. One other man to watch will be Serramenti's Gilberto Simoni, who also has an outside chance at the final maglia rosa.
Stage 20: Rovetta - Tirano
Another monster mountain stage, and the last chance for the climbers to get in their big attacks before the final day time trial. Two huge climbs, the Passo Gavia and Passo Mortirolo, are followed by a long uphill drag to Aprica and a fast descent into Tirano. This type of stage, in my opinion, favors a strong climber who can also descend well. In other words, LPR's Paolo "Il Falco" Salvodelli; he is far enough down on the overall classification to be given a large lead over the climbs, and his descending skills should be enough to give him the win. More importantly, though, watch for a big battle on the Mortirolo between Contador and Ricco, with the Italian gaining little time over his Spanish rival by the stage's end.
Stage 21: Cesano Maderno - Milano
The last stage of the Giro will hopefully be a tense fight down to the final meters, probably between Contador and Ricco, the two non-time triallists. In that battle, I give the advantage to the Spaniard, because of his performance when it counted in the Tour's final Time Trial last year. There are two riders who I think have a good chance to win Sunday, Marzio Bruseghin (Lampre), Denis Menchov (Rabobank). Both are good time trial riders who are on good form for this Giro. Of the two, I think Bruseghin will triumph, both because of his win in the first long Time Trial and because a great ride in the TT could push him ahead of Gilberto Simoni and onto the 3rd step of the podium.
That's all for the Giro. If I have time, I'll try to write up a Dauphine preview in the next few weeks. Until then...
Forzi squadri Lampre e Milram!
~Ben
Stage 17: Sondrio - Locarno
This is the final stage of the Giro that looks like one for the sprinters, and I have to suspect that it will be a battle between the race's two top fastmen so far, Daniele Bennati (Lampre) and Mark Cavendish (High Road). Bennati has one stage more than the Brit so far, and I fancy him to get another tomorrow. He's been very fast so far and has the gift of a lot more experience than Cavendish, which I think will have helped him get through the high mountains in better shape.
Stage 18: Mendrisio - Varese
Another day of transition before three huge days to settle the General Classification, this one ends on another short climb. So far, these finishes have been dominated by the young Italian Ricardo Ricco (Saunier Duval), however, this climb averages just 2.5% over 5 kilometers, not exactly the steep finish that Ricco would favor. Still, the Saunier Duval rider knows that he needs to pull back time on the maglia rosa Alberto Contador whenever and wherever he can, and I think he will win this stage, and with the time bonuses, close the gap to his Spanish rival, setting up a huge three days of mano y mano combat in the Dolomites and the roads of Milan.
Stage 19: Legnano - Monte Pora
Stage 19 is an epic mountain stage and a fitting final summit finish for this year's Giro. Three massive climbs will shatter the peloton, and leave only the strongest men at the head of the race at the top of Monte Pora. So far the mountain stages have been dominated by CSF Navigare's Emmanuele Sella and the aforementioned Ricardo Ricco. However, I think the man who will break out of his shell on the big stage will be Caisse d'Epargne's Venezuelan enigma, Jose Rujano. Rujano has been getting stronger and stronger, and I think he will not be chased down by the big teams, who will be too concerned with battling each other. One other man to watch will be Serramenti's Gilberto Simoni, who also has an outside chance at the final maglia rosa.
Stage 20: Rovetta - Tirano
Another monster mountain stage, and the last chance for the climbers to get in their big attacks before the final day time trial. Two huge climbs, the Passo Gavia and Passo Mortirolo, are followed by a long uphill drag to Aprica and a fast descent into Tirano. This type of stage, in my opinion, favors a strong climber who can also descend well. In other words, LPR's Paolo "Il Falco" Salvodelli; he is far enough down on the overall classification to be given a large lead over the climbs, and his descending skills should be enough to give him the win. More importantly, though, watch for a big battle on the Mortirolo between Contador and Ricco, with the Italian gaining little time over his Spanish rival by the stage's end.
Stage 21: Cesano Maderno - Milano
The last stage of the Giro will hopefully be a tense fight down to the final meters, probably between Contador and Ricco, the two non-time triallists. In that battle, I give the advantage to the Spaniard, because of his performance when it counted in the Tour's final Time Trial last year. There are two riders who I think have a good chance to win Sunday, Marzio Bruseghin (Lampre), Denis Menchov (Rabobank). Both are good time trial riders who are on good form for this Giro. Of the two, I think Bruseghin will triumph, both because of his win in the first long Time Trial and because a great ride in the TT could push him ahead of Gilberto Simoni and onto the 3rd step of the podium.
That's all for the Giro. If I have time, I'll try to write up a Dauphine preview in the next few weeks. Until then...
Forzi squadri Lampre e Milram!
~Ben
Saturday, May 10, 2008
Giro Preview Part 2: Stages 1-9
The first nine Stages this year are fairly difficult and should see a few gaps open up in the GC before the serious mountain stages in the Dolomites. The Team Time Trial should give an early indication of which teams are ready to defend the maglia rosa, and which ones are not.
Stage 1: Palermo - Palermo TTT
As you can see, the TTT is basically going to be a pan-flat speed contest. Two of the strongest time trialling teams in the race, Astana and Slipstream are the big favorites for this first Stage. Astana will be looking to show that their overall challenged is solid, and one of the characteristics of Johan Bruyneel teams is their strength in the Team test. Slipstream has a number of talented riders, and they very much want to prove that they are deserving of their wild card selection to the Giro. However. I reckon that the depth of Astana will be the clincher for the Kazakh-sponsored squad.
Stage 2: Cefalu - Agrigento
Stage 2 is an undulating ride across the island of Sicily, and finishes with a short 3.7-kilometer climb up to the finish in Agrigento. This finish is the kind that an aggressive rider with good climbing ability and who wants to gain time early on can profit from. In other words, this stage is perfect for Danilo Di Luca (LPR Brakes). The defending Giro champion thrives on this kind of finish, and his explosiveness on the shorter climbs will be the clincher here. The other likely result is a breakaway win, because the sprinters' teams know they can't win on a finish like this, and therefore will not chase down the breaks. However, the big men of this year's Giro should be looking to put time into each other early on, so I suspect the teams with GC contenders will keep the race together over the last 10 km, before all hell breaks loose on the climb.
Stage 3: Catania - Milazzo
Aside from the initial climbing (which results from the Giro taking an inland route around Mt. Etna) this is absolutely a sprinters' stage. The almost completely flat last 120 km should give the sprinters' teams plenty of time to chase down the early morning breakaway and set up their lead-out trains for the finish. Although I'm not convinced of the quality of the team surrounding him, my pick for this stage is Mark Cavendish (High Road). He's clearly on good form after winning the Scheldeprijs Vlaanderen and two stages of the Tour de Romandie, and has a very fast finishing kick.
Stage 4: Pizzo Calabro - Catanzaro-Lungomare
Stage 4 is the first Stage on the Italian mainland and provides early on a taste of the climbing to come. However, the majority of the stage is fairly flat, and the sole climb that comes late on, the climb to the town of Catanzaro, averages just 3.1% - not too hard for the sprinters. I reckon that Daniele Bennati (Liquigas) will win this stage. I think his team will be able to crank up the pace on the climb and set him up better than High Road will for Cavendish.
Stage 5: Belvedere Marittimo - Contursi Terme
This stage is very similar to Stage 2, in that it has a fairly undulating profile and a short climb up to the finish. However, the climbing in this stage is significantly easier, and the finish is suited more to a rider like the World Road Race Champion Paolo Bettini (Quick.Step) who can take the 6.9% grade of the 3-kilometer climb in his stride. Bettini also has the benefit of a strong team which is suited to this type of short climb racing because of its presence as a major force in the Northern Classics.
Stage 6: Potenza - Peschici
If it weren't for a very slight uptick in the profile right at the end, I would call this an easy stage for the sprinters. However, because of the very short but sharp climb, I favor Igor Astarloa, or a similar rider to win this stage. Although Astarloa hasn't been a very large figure in races since he was World Champion in 2004, he has a good finishing kick on the climbs - you have to to win La Fleche Wallonne. Another good pick would be the always aggressive CSC veteran Jens Voigt, or, once again, Paolo Bettini.
Stage 7: Vasto - Pescoconstanzo
This will be the first real mountain test of the 2008 Giro. Although the summit finish is not a terribly difficult one, it will be an important psychological test for all of the major contenders. The time triallists like Menchov and Kloden must keep their cool and not lose more than two minutes here. As far as the stage winner is concerned, there are almost innumberable possibilities because of the number of high-quality climbers in this race. However, I would give the edge to Riccadro Ricco (Saunier Duval) winning ahead of Alberto Contador (Astana). I think those two will be the main animators of the race in the mountains, and their dynamic climbing styles will demolish the rest of the field. Don't discount Gilberto Simoni (Serramenti PVC) or Leonardo Piepoli (Saunier Duval), among others.
Stage 8: Rivisondoli - Tivoli
Yet another flattish stage that the sprinters would say has been "spoiled" by adding in that little climb at the end. I've pretty much gone over the riders who will have a good shot at winning this kind of stage: Di Luca, Bettini, Astarloa, and Voigt. This Stage, however, actually has a decent potential for breakaways. A tired peloton after the first mountain stage might not be inclined to chase a harmless break that builds up a bid lead early on. One rider to look out for could be Christian Vande Velde (Slipstream). The Slipstream team will be looking to put a lot of riders in breaks throughout the race to hopefully get a stage win, and this is a pretty good stage for Vande Velde to target.
Stage 9: Civitavecchia - San Vincenzo
No question about it, this is one of the flattest Stages of this year's Giro. There is almost nothing to discuss when it comes to the profile, it is, quite simply, flat (with a few hills for good measure). This kind of Stage seems like the kind that Cavendish will enjoy greatly, even if he doesn't get a perfect lead-out. He will be challenged by Zabel, McEwen (unless he drops out on Stage 7), and Bennati, but I suspect the Brit will come out on top. His sprint speed won't have been dulled much by the climbing, and he'll still have a good number of teammates willing to work for him. However, don't discount McEwen, because if there is any stage he has a chance of winning, this is probably it.
I'll do Part 3 after the TTT tomorrow. Forzi squadri Milram e Lampre!
-Ben
Stage 1: Palermo - Palermo TTT
As you can see, the TTT is basically going to be a pan-flat speed contest. Two of the strongest time trialling teams in the race, Astana and Slipstream are the big favorites for this first Stage. Astana will be looking to show that their overall challenged is solid, and one of the characteristics of Johan Bruyneel teams is their strength in the Team test. Slipstream has a number of talented riders, and they very much want to prove that they are deserving of their wild card selection to the Giro. However. I reckon that the depth of Astana will be the clincher for the Kazakh-sponsored squad.
Stage 2: Cefalu - Agrigento
Stage 2 is an undulating ride across the island of Sicily, and finishes with a short 3.7-kilometer climb up to the finish in Agrigento. This finish is the kind that an aggressive rider with good climbing ability and who wants to gain time early on can profit from. In other words, this stage is perfect for Danilo Di Luca (LPR Brakes). The defending Giro champion thrives on this kind of finish, and his explosiveness on the shorter climbs will be the clincher here. The other likely result is a breakaway win, because the sprinters' teams know they can't win on a finish like this, and therefore will not chase down the breaks. However, the big men of this year's Giro should be looking to put time into each other early on, so I suspect the teams with GC contenders will keep the race together over the last 10 km, before all hell breaks loose on the climb.
Stage 3: Catania - Milazzo
Aside from the initial climbing (which results from the Giro taking an inland route around Mt. Etna) this is absolutely a sprinters' stage. The almost completely flat last 120 km should give the sprinters' teams plenty of time to chase down the early morning breakaway and set up their lead-out trains for the finish. Although I'm not convinced of the quality of the team surrounding him, my pick for this stage is Mark Cavendish (High Road). He's clearly on good form after winning the Scheldeprijs Vlaanderen and two stages of the Tour de Romandie, and has a very fast finishing kick.
Stage 4: Pizzo Calabro - Catanzaro-Lungomare
Stage 4 is the first Stage on the Italian mainland and provides early on a taste of the climbing to come. However, the majority of the stage is fairly flat, and the sole climb that comes late on, the climb to the town of Catanzaro, averages just 3.1% - not too hard for the sprinters. I reckon that Daniele Bennati (Liquigas) will win this stage. I think his team will be able to crank up the pace on the climb and set him up better than High Road will for Cavendish.
Stage 5: Belvedere Marittimo - Contursi Terme
This stage is very similar to Stage 2, in that it has a fairly undulating profile and a short climb up to the finish. However, the climbing in this stage is significantly easier, and the finish is suited more to a rider like the World Road Race Champion Paolo Bettini (Quick.Step) who can take the 6.9% grade of the 3-kilometer climb in his stride. Bettini also has the benefit of a strong team which is suited to this type of short climb racing because of its presence as a major force in the Northern Classics.
Stage 6: Potenza - Peschici
If it weren't for a very slight uptick in the profile right at the end, I would call this an easy stage for the sprinters. However, because of the very short but sharp climb, I favor Igor Astarloa, or a similar rider to win this stage. Although Astarloa hasn't been a very large figure in races since he was World Champion in 2004, he has a good finishing kick on the climbs - you have to to win La Fleche Wallonne. Another good pick would be the always aggressive CSC veteran Jens Voigt, or, once again, Paolo Bettini.
Stage 7: Vasto - Pescoconstanzo
This will be the first real mountain test of the 2008 Giro. Although the summit finish is not a terribly difficult one, it will be an important psychological test for all of the major contenders. The time triallists like Menchov and Kloden must keep their cool and not lose more than two minutes here. As far as the stage winner is concerned, there are almost innumberable possibilities because of the number of high-quality climbers in this race. However, I would give the edge to Riccadro Ricco (Saunier Duval) winning ahead of Alberto Contador (Astana). I think those two will be the main animators of the race in the mountains, and their dynamic climbing styles will demolish the rest of the field. Don't discount Gilberto Simoni (Serramenti PVC) or Leonardo Piepoli (Saunier Duval), among others.
Stage 8: Rivisondoli - Tivoli
Yet another flattish stage that the sprinters would say has been "spoiled" by adding in that little climb at the end. I've pretty much gone over the riders who will have a good shot at winning this kind of stage: Di Luca, Bettini, Astarloa, and Voigt. This Stage, however, actually has a decent potential for breakaways. A tired peloton after the first mountain stage might not be inclined to chase a harmless break that builds up a bid lead early on. One rider to look out for could be Christian Vande Velde (Slipstream). The Slipstream team will be looking to put a lot of riders in breaks throughout the race to hopefully get a stage win, and this is a pretty good stage for Vande Velde to target.
Stage 9: Civitavecchia - San Vincenzo
No question about it, this is one of the flattest Stages of this year's Giro. There is almost nothing to discuss when it comes to the profile, it is, quite simply, flat (with a few hills for good measure). This kind of Stage seems like the kind that Cavendish will enjoy greatly, even if he doesn't get a perfect lead-out. He will be challenged by Zabel, McEwen (unless he drops out on Stage 7), and Bennati, but I suspect the Brit will come out on top. His sprint speed won't have been dulled much by the climbing, and he'll still have a good number of teammates willing to work for him. However, don't discount McEwen, because if there is any stage he has a chance of winning, this is probably it.
I'll do Part 3 after the TTT tomorrow. Forzi squadri Milram e Lampre!
-Ben
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)