Overall Giro Preview

Since the Giro is a huge race, and this year's edition is especially exceptional, I'm breaking my Preview up into four parts. The first part (which you're reading right now) is an overall preview; I'll give my take on the favorites for the maglia rosa (GC), the maglia verde (Mountains), the maglia ciclamino (Points), and the maglia bianca (Young Rider), and how I see the race unfolding overall. The second part will cover Stages 1-9, the third, Stages 10-16, and the final part, Stages 17-21.

Map:


Overall Profile:



This year's Giro begins with a short 28.5 km Team Time Trial though the Sicilian city of Palermo, then crosses the island to Agrigento, and then Stage 3 crosses back to the finish in Milazzo. The first seven stages are all fairly difficult as early stages go, and should serve to create a few gaps before the first true foray into the mountains on Stage 7. The summit finish at Pescocostanzo in the Appenines, following a long trek up the peninsula, will give the climbers a chance to pull back most of the time they lost in the opening TTT. The first few stages will also serve to set up the race for the maglia ciclamino of the Points classification, which should be a battle between High Road's Mark Cavendish, Milram's Erik Zabel, and Liquigas' Daniele Bennati. All have shown good form in the early part of the season, although I think Bennati's combination of speed and consistency will triumph over Zabel's experience and Cavendish's pure sprinting talent. While normally I would give Robbie McEwen (Silence-Lotto) a good chance of winning, his lack of consistent results in the past year has raised doubts for me about whether he can still compete for a Points jersey, which requires consistency and attentiveness every day of the race.

The Individual Time Trial on Stage 10 should once again bring the more powerful all-rounders and pure time triallists to the fore. They have to make the most of their opportunity, though, as the first Dolomitian mountain stage comes on Stage 14, after 3 stages that look very good for the sprinters. Before that first day in the Italian Alps, we should have a very good idea of the eventual winner of the maglia ciclamino. Stage 14 undulates for the first 140 kilometers before the riders hit the steep ramps of the Passo Manghen; once over the climb they have a 10 kilometer descent before a short flat section leading up the the climb of the Alpe di Pampeago. The Pampeago is a short climb at just 7.7 km, but is very steep (9.8% average grade). The pure climbers will hit out hard, but only on the last climb, because they know what is to come the next day. It does, however, seem a climb tailor made for the attacking style of one Alberto Contador (Astana)

The queen stage of this year's Giro is the 15th Stage, from Arabba to the summit of the Passo Fedaia (the Marmolada). It features five absolutely massive climbs; the Passo Pordoi, the Passo San Pellegrino, the Passo Giau, the Passo Falzarego, and the final climb of the Marmolada. The climbers will once again be on the attack, but also must be wary because the next day is the brutal Mountain Time Trial up the Kronplatz. The climber that can put the most time into his rivals on these three stages will be in an excellent position to win the race overall.

Following two moderate stages through the Alpine valleys, the Giro the three final stages will (hopefully) all prove critical to determining the overall winner. The summit finish at Monte Pora stage 19 is the last of the Giro, and will be the penultimate chance for the climbers to gain time before the last-day time trial. Once again, the stiff gradient of the climb should give us a great battle between, perhaps, the two young stars of the mountains - Alberto Contador and Riccardo Ricco (Saunier Duval). The final mountain stage from Rovetta to Tirano crosses the Giro's highest peak, the formidable Passo Gavia, which tops out at 2618 meters and is well over 20 kilometers in length. The Gavia is followed, after a long descent, by the equally fearsome Passo del Mortirolo, a 12.8-kilometer monster that averages a 10.8% in grade. Following a 15-kilometer drag up to Aprica, the riders plunge down into Tirano, where, in all likelyhood, a very nervous climber will put on the maglia rosa before the time triallists try to rip it from him the following day.

Hopefully we will not know the overall winner before the start of the 23.5-kilometer time trial from Cesano Maderno to the center of Milan, but it certainly is possible. The sheer amount of climbing in this year's Giro should give plenty of opportunities for the mountain men to put time into the rouleurs. The time trial course, however, is completely flat, and if a good time trial rider is within a minute of Contador (I expect him to have taken the lead by this point through constant attacks in the mountains), the race will still be up for grabs.

My Predictions:
GC: Alberto Contador (Astana)
KOM: Alberto Contador
Points: Daniele Bennati (Liquigas)
Young Rider: Riccardo Ricco (Saunier Duval)

Part 2 will be along later.

Milano-San Remo Preview

The biggest race of the season so far starts tomorrow on the Piazzo Duomo in Milan. At 298 kilometers, Milano-San Remo is by far the longest of the Monuments, and should produce a huge battle, not only between the sprinters, but also with some of the strong breakaway riders like Paolo Bettini (Quick.Step) and Danilo Di Luca (LPR). The percorso of La Primavera has been slightly altered this year due to road construction; a new climb has been included in the form of Le Manie, a 4.7 kilometer climb at an average of 6.7%, and the finish has been shifted from the traditional boulevard of the Via Roma to the slightly wider Lungomare Italo Calvino, which is right on the Ligurian seaside.

Overall Route Map:

Overall Route Profile:

The overall route is essentially the same as it is every year. After a long, flat, first 100 kilometers, the race tackles its first climb in the form of the very gradual Passo del Turchino. After the fast descent off the Turchino, the riders have about 40 kilometers of flat or undulation riding along the Ligurian coast before Le Manie. Unfortunately, despite the difficulty of the climb, its distance from the finish (nearly 100 kilometers) will prevent it from being a real springboard to victory. Le Manie is followed by another 60k of undulating roads until the first of the two most crucial climbs in Milano-San Remo, the Cipressa. Although it does not usually create the winning break, the Cipressa does serve to narrow out the field a bit; some of the pre-race favorites may be dropped on the climb, and there have also been crashes on the descent in the past. The most important climb in Milano-San Remo, however, is the last one, the Poggio (also known as the Poggio di Sanremo). It's a fairly shallow and short climb at just 3.7% over only 3.7 kilometers, but Di Luca and Bettini, among others, will be firing on all cylinders up the Poggio. If a small group can stay away over the top of the climb, they have a chance (albeit a small one) of winning; Bettini won from a break in 2003 and Filippo Pozzato (Liquigas) barely held on ahead of Alessandro Petacchi (Milram) two years ago. This year, however, the race looks destined for a bunch sprint, not only because there are several top-class sprinters whose teams will chase down every last breakaway attempt, but also because the finish has been altered. There are about 500 additional meters of flat (enough time for a charging peloton to eliminate a 5" to 10" lead) that have been added, giving the sprinters' teams even more space to chase down any breaks that survive over the Poggio.

Final Ks Map:

Final Ks Profile:


Predictions:
It must be said that, as a huge Alessandro Petacchi fan, I am clearly biased in my predictions for La Primavera. I think that the Ale-Jet has a fantastic chance to capture his second win in Milano-San Remo tomorrow, and I'm surprised how much the media are, in my opinion, underrating him. The popular favorite is Rabobank's Oscar Freire after his two stage wins in Tirreno-Adriatico. Tom Boonen (Quick.Step) and Thor Hushovd (Credit Agricole) should also have a good chance, although Hushovd will not have the same team support as the other big sprinters. Robbie McEwen (Silence-Lotto) seems to be getting a bit on in years, and has never really been a consistently great finisher in MSR. Lampre's hopes in the sprint will rest on Danilo Napolitano, while Barloworld will have a three-pronged attack with Robbie Hunter, Enrico Gasparotto, and Baden Cooke.
The possible breakaway winners are led by the World Road Champion Bettini and LPR's Di Luca. Gerolsteiner's Stefan Schumacher may also be a major animator on the Poggio, and Alessandro Ballan will be at the sharp end of the race for Lampre. Former World Champion Igor Astarloa (Milram) may be given a bit of a free role if Petacchi is not feeling up to his best, but the team with the biggest set of breakaway threats is CSC. Frank Schleck, Fabian Cancellara and Stuart O'Grady could all be on the attack on the Poggio, as O'Grady seems to have lost a bit of his sprinting sharpness.
My pick is still Alessandro Petacchi. I think Ale-Jet has the experience, the team, and the sprinting ability to win tomorrow on the Lungomare Italo Calvino.

Forza Petacchi e squadri Milram!
-Ben

Tirreno-Adriatico Review

2008 Tirreno-Adriatico (Italy)
March 12-18, NE

Overall GC Winner: Fabian Cancellara (CSC)
Mountains Classification: Lloyd Mondory (ag2r - La Mondiale)
Points Classification: Oscar Freire (Rabobank)
Best Young Rider: Thomas Lovkvist (High Road)
Stage Winners:
Stage 1 - Oscar Freire (Rabobank)
Stage 2 - Raffaele Illiano (Serramenti PVC Diquigiovanni)
Stage 3 - Joaquím Rodríguez (Caisse d'Epargne)
Stage 4 - Alessandro Petacchi (Milram)
Stage 5 - Fabian Cancellara (CSC)
Stage 6 - Oscar Freire (Rabobank)
Stage 7 - Francesco Chicchi (Liquigas)
Notable Events/Controversies: Besides Ricardo Ricco getting mad after a mechanical incident on Stage 2 and (literally) throwing his bike across the finish line, not much.
Good race for: Italians and Spaniards (they won 6 stages).
Bad race for: Breakaways.
Pros: Excellent weather and some good sprints.
Cons: It was a bit predictable, overall. Then again Tirreno is a sprinters' race, so that does tend to happen.
We'll Remember it for: Two words: the Montelupone.
What to change for 2009: Stick in a few more big climbs (long, not just steep like the Montelupone) to create GC shakeups besides the TT.
Overall rating: 7/10; I'm being a bit charitable because I like Tirreno and Petacchi got a stage win, but the Montelupone stage was pretty crazy.

Paris-Nice Review

2008 Paris-Nice (Paris, France to Nice, France)
March 9-16, NE

Overall GC Winner: Davide Rebellin (Gerolsteiner)
Mountains Classification: Clément Lhotellerie (Skil-Shimano)
Points Classification: Thor Hushovd (Credit Agricole)
Best Young Rider: Robert Gesink (Rabobank)
Stage Winners:
Prologue - Thor Hushovd (Credit Agricole)
Stage 1 - Gert Steegmans (Quick.Step)
Stage 2 - Gert Steegmans (Quick.Step)
Stage 3 - Kjell Carlström (Liquigas)
Stage 4 - Cadel Evans (Silence-Lotto)
Stage 5 - Carlos Barredo (Quick.Step)
Stage 6 - Sylvain Chavanel (Cofidis)
Stage 7 - Luis Leon Sanchez (Caisse d'Epargne)
Notable Events/Controversies: Not really anything terribly controversial in the racing itself, although there were pre-race polemics between the ASO and UCI over the race's status as a FFC-sanctioned race instead of a ProTour event.
Good race for: Quick.Step (3 stage wins) and Cadel Evans (stage win atop the Mont Ventoux).
Bad race for: Pure climbers, especially Cunego. They flattered to decieve throughout.
Pros: A very attacking and hilly last few stages.
Cons: Terrible weather and stale racing for the first few days.
We'll Remember it for: Rebellin finally breaking through and winning the Race to the Sun, and Luis Leon Sanchez riding like an über-Jens Voigt on his way to winning the last stage. Also (possibly) the breakout race for Lhotellerie.
What to change for 2009: Not much, maybe one more true flat stage to attract more of the pure sprinters, but keep the Ventoux, for sure.
Overall rating: 8/10, some young guns (especially Sanchez, Gesink and Lhotellerie) and a good route made for some serious attacking cycling.

Paris-Nice Preview Part 1: Prologue - Stage 3

The first big stage race of the season starts Sunday in Paris. Although the field has been hurt a bit by riders concerned about the ramifications of the UCI-ASO feud, there will still be many top class riders on the start line in Amilly tomorrow. Davide Rebellin (Gerolsteiner), Christophe Moreau (Agritubel), Oscar Pereiro (Caisse d'Epargne), Damiano Cunego (Lampre-Fondital), Cadel Evans (Silence-Lotto), Frank Schleck (CSC) and David Millar (Slipstream) will be the main contenders for overall victory, while Thor Hushovd (Credit Agricole) will battle Bernhard Eisel (High Road) and Bradley McGee (CSC) in the sprints. The race is dominated by undulating and moderate mountain stages, in which attacking riders like Stefan Schumacher (Gerolsteiner) and Jens Voigt (CSC) will try to grab an early season win or perhaps the race lead.

Overall Map:


This year's race starts with a short Prologue time trial outside of Paris. The first stage is the only "true" sprinters' stage, and is followed by a pair of difficult stages which will probably have breakaway winners, but will certainly impact the overall classification. The queen stage is the summit finish on Mont Ventoux, and it will probably go a long way to deciding the final winner. The last three stages are difficult, including the traditional final day's mountainous race around the city of Nice.


Prologue Map:


Prologue Profile:


The Prologue time trial is a completely flat, short test around Amilly. It is not very technical either, meaning the best time will probably be somewhere between 5:00 and 5:10, for an average speed of about 55 km/h. The favorite has to be the British Time Trial Champion and past Tour Prologue winner David Millar, although Thor Hushovd has been a good prologue rider as well.


Stage 1 Map:


Stage 1 Profile:


This is the only clear opportunity for the sprinters to take a stage. As such the sprinters' teams will probably take command and close down any dangerous early breaks. They'll reel whatever group does escape in by about 5k to go and we'll have a typical sprint finish. I give Hushovd the edge in a sprint because he seems to be able to perform at a high level throughout the season, and its important for Credit Agricole to do well this year because they are looking for a new sponsor.


Stage 2 Map:


Stage 2 Profile:


Although the first 130 km of Stage 2 are fairly flat, the latter part of the stage is very demanding, and could provide a serious test before the queen stage two days later. A group of strong climbers will probably escape on the early slopes of the Champ Juin and survive until the finish in a small group sprint. As such I'm picking one of my favorite riders, Lampre's Damiano Cungeo, to send out a warning to the other GC men before the Ventoux.


Stage 3 Map:


Stage 3 Profile:


Another demanding stage, this time deep into the Massif Central which the previous day's stage only skirted. The major contenders will keep their powder dry and watch each other carefully because the Ventoux is the next day and they will pay for any huge efforts on this stage. The winner will probably be a solid climber who doesn't have a big shot at the overall - a rider like Yaroslav Popovych (Silence-Lotto) or Jens Voigt. Bobby Julich (CSC) may also have a chance to win here.


The Prologue will be shown (tape-delayed) on Versus from 5 to 7 PM EDT on Sunday (3/9).

Forza Cunego e Petacchi!
-Ben

Monte Paschi Eroica Preview

Just as the Northern Classics kicked off last week with Omloop Het Volk and Kuurne-Brussles-Kuurne, the Italian season really starts this weekend with the second edition of the Monte Paschi Eroica. RCS, also organizers of the Giro d'Italia, held the first edition last fall, but moved the race to its new early spring date to attract more riders preparing for the cobbled classics. It already has a nickname - The Italian Paris-Roubaix - and a reputation as one of the most demanding semi-classics. 56.1 of the race's 181 kilometers are on strade bianche - the Italian name for dirt roads. While the Eroica does not have true cobblestones, the length of the dirt sectors (almost equal to the total amount of pave' in Paris-Roubaix's 260 kilometers) make the race very difficult. Many of the Italian "big guns" will be there on Saturday, including the World Champion Paolo Bettini (Quick.Step), Alessandro Ballan (Lampre-Fondital), Gilberto Simoni (Serramenti PVC), Daniele Nardello (Serramenti PVC), and Riccardo Ricco (Saunier Duval-Scott).

Race Map:



Race Profile:



The Eroica is, as the profile shows, not a flat race by any means. It is quite undulating, especially on the srade bianche sectors, which can make for very tricky descents. All of the riders out to win this year's Eroica will need a bit of luck to go with some solid early season form and good tactical abilities, which are all key to winning semi-classics and classics.

Predictions:
Two riders who have, in my opinion, the best chance of winning the Eroica are Paolo Bettini and Alessandro Ballan. Both are strong men in the classics, although Ballan has the edge in the cobbled classics following his win in de Ronde last year. Their team support will be about equal; Bettini will have Steven De Jongh, winner of KBK last week, and the big Belgian Kevin van Impe, while Ballan's all-Italian squad will be vice-captained by the experienced Ventian Fabio Baldato, who has finished on the podium in Paris-Roubaix, Milan-San Remo, Ghent Wevelgem, and de Ronde.

However, there are several riders and teams who have a very good shot at winning the Eroica. The ever-present Team CSC will have the defending champion of Paris-Roubaix, Stuart O'Grady, leading a squad which includes Kurt Asle-Arvesen, Lars Bak, and the young Dane Matti Breschel. Serramenti PVC has sent out two of its best riders in the climbing specialist and twice Giro winner Gilberto Simoni and their team sprinter Daniele Nardello. Between the two of them Serramenti PVC will be a serious threat. We can't forget about Riccardo Ricco either; the revelation of last year's Giro could well be looking to deliver a warning of his strength to Simoni in particular before the big mountain tests in May.

My pick is Alessandro Ballan. I think Bettini will be looking ahead to Tirreno-Adriatico and two weeks hence to Milano-San Remo, and keep his powder dry. More importantly, though, Bettini has never, in his 11-year career, finished on the podium in a cobbled classic or semi-classic. Ballan has finished on the podium in two Monuments in his 4 years as a professional (Roubaix in '06 and de Ronde last year).

Forza Petacchi e Ballan!
-Ben

Tour of California Wrapup

2008 Tour of California (California, USA)
February 17-24, 2.HC

Overall Winner: Levi Leipheimer (Astana)
Stage Winners:
Prologue - Fabian Cancellara (CSC)
Stage 1 - JJ Haedo (CSC)
Stage 2 - Tom Boonen (Quick.Step)
Stage 3 - Robert Gesink (Rabobank)
Stage 4 - Dominique Rollin (Toyota-United)
Stage 5 - Levi Leipheimer (Astana)
Stage 6 - Luciano Pagliarini (Saunier Duval-Scott)
Stage 7 - George Hincapie (High Road)
Notable Events/Controversies: Besides the Return of Cipo, Cavendish's DQ for holding on to the High Road team car for too long on Stage 6.
Good race for: Riders who like bad weather, especially torrential downpours for 7 hours straight.
Bad race for: Guys who came expecting to work on the tans they started in Qatar.
Pros: Only three field sprints and a very exciting last stage. More climbs and tougher conditions than most of the other early season races.
Cons: In a word: rain.
We'll Remember it for: The return of Super Mario Cipollini. Even though Cipo didn't win any stages, he was a factor in the sprints and seems to still have a good finishing kick despite being out of competition for more than two years. And we'll remember Rollin's win after 7 hours in pouring rain and wind.
What to change for 2009: More climbs, and a bona fide killer mountain stage. California has some huge mountains, USE THEM!
Overall rating: 8/10, even though the weather sucked big time for half the week, the racing was good and the last stage was some really good stuff. Rollin's long breakaway victory on stage 4 was class as well.

Tour Down Under Wrap-up

The 10th edition of the Tour Down Under finished up last week, and now I will inaugurate, if you will, a new feature of this blog: race wrap-ups. Here goes! :)

2008 Tour Down Under (South Australia)
January 20-27, ProTour

Winner: Andre Greipel (High Road)
Stage Winners: Greipel (2, 4, 5,6), Mark Renshaw (Credit Agricole; 1), Allan Davis (UniSA-Australia; 3)
Notable Events/Controversies: Elia Rigotto's (Milram) headbutt which took out Matt Hayman (Rabobank) on Stage 4.
Winners: Greipel, Team High Road.
Losers: Matt Hayman, Allan Davis, and Robbie McEwen, who was totally absent throughout.
Pros: Pretty fast racing, especially for January; good if you like sprinters.
Cons: Not once did a break win the day despite many valiant attacks, particularly by the French.
We'll Remember it for: The emergence of Andre Greipel, probably. And the Rigotto headbutt.
What to change for 2009: MORE HILLS! Even the Willunga Hill didn't stop the sprinters from takind out every stage of the TDU.
Overall rating: 7/10, despite the formulaic sprint finishes, it wasn't bad racing for January. The final stage had some tension in it as well, which was good for the race.


I'll do one for the Tour of Qatar and maybe the 'Cross Worlds as well.