1)Schleck and Contador think they have this in the bag. Watching them sit up off the back of the leaders' group today solely to track each other was ridiculous. That kind of riding can quite easily cost them the race - Menchov and Sanchez nearly made them pay dearly today, that pair could have taken thirty seconds or more and were unfortunate to only seize about fifteen. Schleck and Contador are the strongest men in the race, but that doesn't make winning automatic.
2)The French are having a cracking Tour. Four stage wins, a couple of days in yellow, and they've owned the polka-dot jersey...well, never mind with that last point (see #5). Even so, they have their best win haul in some time and those wins have been hard-fought ones as well. While it doesn't look like they'll win the Tour any time soon, at least they are seeing some success in their home race.
3)Alexander Vinokourov is the worst teammate ever. It's not news but it was emphasized today - instead of setting a vicious tempo, he attacked. Just like when he was at T-Mobile, the only way he knows how to race is to attack. It's very exciting and great to watch as a fan (although a bit less so now that he's been exposed as a cheat), but it can't be good for the leader he's supposed to be "pacing".
4)Dennis Menchov could win the Tour. I'm serious. He's about two and three-quarter minutes back, but if he can chip of a few more seconds from Schleck and Contador in the Pyrenees, which seems reasonable based on their tactics today, he could nick this in the final time trial. Menchov beat Contador by fifty seconds over a slightly shorter effort during the Dauphine, and that was a much hillier course that would have suited Contador more then Menchov. A minute and a half would not be an unreasonable time gain for the former Vuelta winner.
5)The King of the Mountains jersey is a joke. Charteau is quite clearly the only guy who cares about it at this point, and he's a thoroughly mediocre climber. It's a sad state of affairs when this guy is leading the KoM classification rather comfortably is plainly nowhere near the top level of the climbers.
Sunday, July 18, 2010
Friday, July 16, 2010
Quick Five: Stages 11 & 12
Apologies for the lack of a post yesterday - I was fried after work and went straight to bed.
1)We have a race. It was starting to look like the difficult mass-start stages would simply see Schleck and Contador keep each other in check, but the Astana captain shattered that today with his attack on the climb outside of Mende. Contador could probably have gone on to win the Tour in the final time trial by simply staying with Schleck, but he wants to win the race clearly, as he did last year and in 2007. He doesn't want to appear second-best on his favoured terrain of the mountains, and if he is as strong on Sunday as he was today, the end of that stage could be a cracker. However, Schleck was a bit slow to react and lost most of the ten seconds he conceded in the first meters of Contador's attack - it was hardly a comprehensive beating.
2)Mark Renshaw is a thug. The headbutt on Julian Dean was pretty bad, but check out what he did after Cavendish opened up the sprint - he closed the door very dangerously on Tyler Farrar and nearly pushed the Garmin rider into the barriers (thanks to my friend Kellen for pointing that one out). First, a totally unnecessary and dangerous headbutt, and then an equally dangerous maneuver that almost caused a very bad crash. A fully deserved disqualification all around.
3)It's a lot easier to tough things out when you're doped. Tyler Farrar tried to be the hard-man hero of the race, riding for a week with a fractured wrist, but found it too much to bear today. Unlike another American Tyler, Hamilton, Farrar's injury was a bit more serious in cycling terms, and (we hope) he wasn't nearly as juiced. Had he been, he should have picked up a couple of stage wins. For all of Hamilton's bravery and balls, his task was made much easier by the fact that he was substantially more doped than Farrar (again, I'm assuming here, but I think it's fair to make such an assumption).
4)Vintage Vino is gone. The old Vino would have won today's stage, teammate chasing him down or not. The old Vino would have hung with Contador and demanded the stage win. He is a hollow shell of a rider, and I couldn't be happier that he was overhauled before the line. As a former Vino fan who felt betrayed by him, I did not want to see a win for him and was pleasantly surprised that he got caught.
5)Petacchi will give Hushovd an excellent challenge for green. As I said on Wednesday, he looks to be in great form and picked up the green jersey after Stage 11. While he relinquished it to Hushovd today, he was up with the top riders through the first kilometer of the Monteé Laurent Jalabert, an incredible show for a big sprinter like him. Now that Mark Cavendish is without his lead-out man Renshaw, Petacchi should have a better shot at a third stage win tomorrow. He also looks a better bet to get over the small climb near the finish in a good position.
1)We have a race. It was starting to look like the difficult mass-start stages would simply see Schleck and Contador keep each other in check, but the Astana captain shattered that today with his attack on the climb outside of Mende. Contador could probably have gone on to win the Tour in the final time trial by simply staying with Schleck, but he wants to win the race clearly, as he did last year and in 2007. He doesn't want to appear second-best on his favoured terrain of the mountains, and if he is as strong on Sunday as he was today, the end of that stage could be a cracker. However, Schleck was a bit slow to react and lost most of the ten seconds he conceded in the first meters of Contador's attack - it was hardly a comprehensive beating.
2)Mark Renshaw is a thug. The headbutt on Julian Dean was pretty bad, but check out what he did after Cavendish opened up the sprint - he closed the door very dangerously on Tyler Farrar and nearly pushed the Garmin rider into the barriers (thanks to my friend Kellen for pointing that one out). First, a totally unnecessary and dangerous headbutt, and then an equally dangerous maneuver that almost caused a very bad crash. A fully deserved disqualification all around.
3)It's a lot easier to tough things out when you're doped. Tyler Farrar tried to be the hard-man hero of the race, riding for a week with a fractured wrist, but found it too much to bear today. Unlike another American Tyler, Hamilton, Farrar's injury was a bit more serious in cycling terms, and (we hope) he wasn't nearly as juiced. Had he been, he should have picked up a couple of stage wins. For all of Hamilton's bravery and balls, his task was made much easier by the fact that he was substantially more doped than Farrar (again, I'm assuming here, but I think it's fair to make such an assumption).
4)Vintage Vino is gone. The old Vino would have won today's stage, teammate chasing him down or not. The old Vino would have hung with Contador and demanded the stage win. He is a hollow shell of a rider, and I couldn't be happier that he was overhauled before the line. As a former Vino fan who felt betrayed by him, I did not want to see a win for him and was pleasantly surprised that he got caught.
5)Petacchi will give Hushovd an excellent challenge for green. As I said on Wednesday, he looks to be in great form and picked up the green jersey after Stage 11. While he relinquished it to Hushovd today, he was up with the top riders through the first kilometer of the Monteé Laurent Jalabert, an incredible show for a big sprinter like him. Now that Mark Cavendish is without his lead-out man Renshaw, Petacchi should have a better shot at a third stage win tomorrow. He also looks a better bet to get over the small climb near the finish in a good position.
Wednesday, July 14, 2010
Quick Five: Stage 10
1)Mark Cavendish cares about the green jersey. The biggest surprise of the day was seeing the "Manx Missile" flexing his calves for a mere ninth place. For a rider who sits up when it's clear the win has gone in a bunch sprint, it was rather uncharacteristic for him to put in the work for a few points. However, even though he picked up the best placing in the field, he's still forty points behind Thor Hushovd and will need to win almost every remaining flat stage to take the green jersey.
2)This is a very hard Tour. Every Tour has a few quiet stages, and today was one of those. However, the entire pack looked much more gassed - and probably a bit scared - than usual. In the break, too, the riders looked pretty tired. Aerts didn't even try to sprint for third place, and neither Paulinho nor Kiriyenka tried to attack before the sprint, even though it would have been a better move for the RadioShack man. The two brutal days in the Alps have tired out the field, and they are worried about the long stretch in the Pyrenees.
3)Alessandro Petacchi is a damn sight better than expected. Ale-Jet has pretty firmly established himself as the second-best sprinter in this year's Tour. While no one can catch Cavendish on his day, Petacchi's sprinting brain is significantly better and he's profited from that a couple of times. If he can survive the Pyrenees, he should be the biggest challenger to Hushovd for the green jersey.
4)French teams still base their tactics around getting on TV. That's the only sensible explanation for Nicolas Roche's attack today - why else would he have jumped out of the field and soloed about ten kilometers to the finish? Rémi Pauriol, too, had a go late on for no reason at all. Until the French teams stop focusing on publicity, they won't win anything more than a few stages in the Tour.
5)Concentration is still the most important mental attribute in cycling. Lost focus for a moment caused Kiriyenka to lose the stage today - once Paulinho had gapped him by almost two bike lengths, it would have required a Robbie McEwen-esque late burst to overhaul the Portuguese. And really, if you're going to focus for any part of the stage, it has to be when you're three hundred meters out in a two-up sprint.
2)This is a very hard Tour. Every Tour has a few quiet stages, and today was one of those. However, the entire pack looked much more gassed - and probably a bit scared - than usual. In the break, too, the riders looked pretty tired. Aerts didn't even try to sprint for third place, and neither Paulinho nor Kiriyenka tried to attack before the sprint, even though it would have been a better move for the RadioShack man. The two brutal days in the Alps have tired out the field, and they are worried about the long stretch in the Pyrenees.
3)Alessandro Petacchi is a damn sight better than expected. Ale-Jet has pretty firmly established himself as the second-best sprinter in this year's Tour. While no one can catch Cavendish on his day, Petacchi's sprinting brain is significantly better and he's profited from that a couple of times. If he can survive the Pyrenees, he should be the biggest challenger to Hushovd for the green jersey.
4)French teams still base their tactics around getting on TV. That's the only sensible explanation for Nicolas Roche's attack today - why else would he have jumped out of the field and soloed about ten kilometers to the finish? Rémi Pauriol, too, had a go late on for no reason at all. Until the French teams stop focusing on publicity, they won't win anything more than a few stages in the Tour.
5)Concentration is still the most important mental attribute in cycling. Lost focus for a moment caused Kiriyenka to lose the stage today - once Paulinho had gapped him by almost two bike lengths, it would have required a Robbie McEwen-esque late burst to overhaul the Portuguese. And really, if you're going to focus for any part of the stage, it has to be when you're three hundred meters out in a two-up sprint.
Tuesday, July 13, 2010
Quick Five: Stage 9
1)Brains still matter. Casar's stage win today was all about racing intelligence and good positioning. He knew how to take the finish and hit the front just at the right time, first through the corner and first over the line. Just like his last Tour stage win, it was based on making the right move, although this finish was much easier
2)This is not an old man's Tour, at least not for the GC. Evans and Lance have both suffered severely from the effects of crashes in the Alps, Klöden has had a few bad days and Basso isn't looking to sprightly. The only exception seems to be Christoph Moreau, who did a very good ride today, although he was towed in by the two strongest riders in the race.
3)Contador and Schleck are by far the strongest riders in the race. The two climbers have clearly shown that they are the top men in this Tour de France. None but each other can take their accelerations. Unfortunately for Schleck, he still doesn't have the kind of buffer over Contador to keep the yellow jersey through a long time trial. We have, however, seen some chinks in El Pistolero's armor, and Schleck will have plenty of opportunity to seek out and exploit them in the Pyrenees.
4)Sammy Sánchez is a top rider. For years we've seen him ride brilliantly in the Vuelta, but he has rarely animated races outside of his home country. Since his Olympic gold medal in Beijing, he's started to branch out a bit more, and this late bloomer could give a needed spark to the race in the final week. Watch out for him on the stage to Mende.
5)No good climber wants the polka-dot jersey. There's been no Virenque/Jalabert type long raid by a top mountain goat, and the GC men are still thoroughly uninterested in the King of the Mountains competition. As I've said for a long time, the only way to spice it up is by throwing in big (30 seconds to a minute) time bonuses at the top of climbs. The way things stand, a middling French rider looks like taking the polka-dots up to Paris.
2)This is not an old man's Tour, at least not for the GC. Evans and Lance have both suffered severely from the effects of crashes in the Alps, Klöden has had a few bad days and Basso isn't looking to sprightly. The only exception seems to be Christoph Moreau, who did a very good ride today, although he was towed in by the two strongest riders in the race.
3)Contador and Schleck are by far the strongest riders in the race. The two climbers have clearly shown that they are the top men in this Tour de France. None but each other can take their accelerations. Unfortunately for Schleck, he still doesn't have the kind of buffer over Contador to keep the yellow jersey through a long time trial. We have, however, seen some chinks in El Pistolero's armor, and Schleck will have plenty of opportunity to seek out and exploit them in the Pyrenees.
4)Sammy Sánchez is a top rider. For years we've seen him ride brilliantly in the Vuelta, but he has rarely animated races outside of his home country. Since his Olympic gold medal in Beijing, he's started to branch out a bit more, and this late bloomer could give a needed spark to the race in the final week. Watch out for him on the stage to Mende.
5)No good climber wants the polka-dot jersey. There's been no Virenque/Jalabert type long raid by a top mountain goat, and the GC men are still thoroughly uninterested in the King of the Mountains competition. As I've said for a long time, the only way to spice it up is by throwing in big (30 seconds to a minute) time bonuses at the top of climbs. The way things stand, a middling French rider looks like taking the polka-dots up to Paris.
Quick Five: Rest Day #1
1)Andy Schleck looks good. Damn good. Great acceleration yesterday to gap Contador and the others, and a fantastic kick to outsprint Sammy Sanchez, who is a good finisher. This kid is on form.
2)Lance is done. Yet another great champion has raced a Tour too many and it has proved his undoing - Armstrong at Morzine-Avoriaz was reminiscent of Indurain at Les Arcs or Merckx after Pra Loup. He has a great chance, now, to win the KOM classification, but he won't take it because he's too proud.
3)Contador has not convinced me. After a phenomenal job of work by Navarro on the final climb, he didn't attack, and didn't respond well when Schleck blasted off the front. The Contador of the last three years would have bridged that gap, sprinted past and won the stage.
4)Cav is done - no, he's back. After - God forbid! - four stages without a win, Mark Cavendish picked up a couple of stages as we expected. However, his pride has been his undoing in the green jersey, as he hasn't sprinted for the placings when it's been clear that the victory has gone. He could still win the maillot vert, but it will take some poor showing by Thor and several more stage wins - which are not guaranteed if Petacchi can get over the mountains.
5)Nobody knows tactics any more. Wiggins murdered his team yesterday for absolutely no reason at all, and then got dropped on the final climb. Garmin have set-up Cavendish at least once, probably twice. When Petacchi sprints around you, you have to go and grab his wheel right away. Don't ride behind guys who are getting musettes outside of the feed zone. This is basic stuff.
2)Lance is done. Yet another great champion has raced a Tour too many and it has proved his undoing - Armstrong at Morzine-Avoriaz was reminiscent of Indurain at Les Arcs or Merckx after Pra Loup. He has a great chance, now, to win the KOM classification, but he won't take it because he's too proud.
3)Contador has not convinced me. After a phenomenal job of work by Navarro on the final climb, he didn't attack, and didn't respond well when Schleck blasted off the front. The Contador of the last three years would have bridged that gap, sprinted past and won the stage.
4)Cav is done - no, he's back. After - God forbid! - four stages without a win, Mark Cavendish picked up a couple of stages as we expected. However, his pride has been his undoing in the green jersey, as he hasn't sprinted for the placings when it's been clear that the victory has gone. He could still win the maillot vert, but it will take some poor showing by Thor and several more stage wins - which are not guaranteed if Petacchi can get over the mountains.
5)Nobody knows tactics any more. Wiggins murdered his team yesterday for absolutely no reason at all, and then got dropped on the final climb. Garmin have set-up Cavendish at least once, probably twice. When Petacchi sprints around you, you have to go and grab his wheel right away. Don't ride behind guys who are getting musettes outside of the feed zone. This is basic stuff.
Sunday, July 11, 2010
Quick Tour Thought
Alright, I'm back, and it's good to be back. It is Tour time, and I'd like to take the opportunity to slate Mr. Bradley Wiggins for murdering his entire team and then losing a minute forty-five in the last 3k. Well done, sir.
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