Giro Finale Preview (Stages 17-21)

First off, I would like to apologize for my lack of diligence with regard to this blog of late. I've had a lot of schoolwork and, unfortunately, as much as I love writing about cycling, it has to be subordinate to other things I have to do. However, without further explanation/excuses, a Preview of the final 5 stages of this year's Giro. By the way, you can see the full versions of the images I post by clicking on them.

Stage 17: Sondrio - Locarno





This is the final stage of the Giro that looks like one for the sprinters, and I have to suspect that it will be a battle between the race's two top fastmen so far, Daniele Bennati (Lampre) and Mark Cavendish (High Road). Bennati has one stage more than the Brit so far, and I fancy him to get another tomorrow. He's been very fast so far and has the gift of a lot more experience than Cavendish, which I think will have helped him get through the high mountains in better shape.

Stage 18: Mendrisio - Varese




Another day of transition before three huge days to settle the General Classification, this one ends on another short climb. So far, these finishes have been dominated by the young Italian Ricardo Ricco (Saunier Duval), however, this climb averages just 2.5% over 5 kilometers, not exactly the steep finish that Ricco would favor. Still, the Saunier Duval rider knows that he needs to pull back time on the maglia rosa Alberto Contador whenever and wherever he can, and I think he will win this stage, and with the time bonuses, close the gap to his Spanish rival, setting up a huge three days of mano y mano combat in the Dolomites and the roads of Milan.

Stage 19: Legnano - Monte Pora







Stage 19 is an epic mountain stage and a fitting final summit finish for this year's Giro. Three massive climbs will shatter the peloton, and leave only the strongest men at the head of the race at the top of Monte Pora. So far the mountain stages have been dominated by CSF Navigare's Emmanuele Sella and the aforementioned Ricardo Ricco. However, I think the man who will break out of his shell on the big stage will be Caisse d'Epargne's Venezuelan enigma, Jose Rujano. Rujano has been getting stronger and stronger, and I think he will not be chased down by the big teams, who will be too concerned with battling each other. One other man to watch will be Serramenti's Gilberto Simoni, who also has an outside chance at the final maglia rosa.

Stage 20: Rovetta - Tirano









Another monster mountain stage, and the last chance for the climbers to get in their big attacks before the final day time trial. Two huge climbs, the Passo Gavia and Passo Mortirolo, are followed by a long uphill drag to Aprica and a fast descent into Tirano. This type of stage, in my opinion, favors a strong climber who can also descend well. In other words, LPR's Paolo "Il Falco" Salvodelli; he is far enough down on the overall classification to be given a large lead over the climbs, and his descending skills should be enough to give him the win. More importantly, though, watch for a big battle on the Mortirolo between Contador and Ricco, with the Italian gaining little time over his Spanish rival by the stage's end.

Stage 21: Cesano Maderno - Milano




The last stage of the Giro will hopefully be a tense fight down to the final meters, probably between Contador and Ricco, the two non-time triallists. In that battle, I give the advantage to the Spaniard, because of his performance when it counted in the Tour's final Time Trial last year. There are two riders who I think have a good chance to win Sunday, Marzio Bruseghin (Lampre), Denis Menchov (Rabobank). Both are good time trial riders who are on good form for this Giro. Of the two, I think Bruseghin will triumph, both because of his win in the first long Time Trial and because a great ride in the TT could push him ahead of Gilberto Simoni and onto the 3rd step of the podium.

That's all for the Giro. If I have time, I'll try to write up a Dauphine preview in the next few weeks. Until then...

Forzi squadri Lampre e Milram!
~Ben

Giro Preview Part 2: Stages 1-9

The first nine Stages this year are fairly difficult and should see a few gaps open up in the GC before the serious mountain stages in the Dolomites. The Team Time Trial should give an early indication of which teams are ready to defend the maglia rosa, and which ones are not.

Stage 1: Palermo - Palermo TTT




As you can see, the TTT is basically going to be a pan-flat speed contest. Two of the strongest time trialling teams in the race, Astana and Slipstream are the big favorites for this first Stage. Astana will be looking to show that their overall challenged is solid, and one of the characteristics of Johan Bruyneel teams is their strength in the Team test. Slipstream has a number of talented riders, and they very much want to prove that they are deserving of their wild card selection to the Giro. However. I reckon that the depth of Astana will be the clincher for the Kazakh-sponsored squad.

Stage 2: Cefalu - Agrigento




Stage 2 is an undulating ride across the island of Sicily, and finishes with a short 3.7-kilometer climb up to the finish in Agrigento. This finish is the kind that an aggressive rider with good climbing ability and who wants to gain time early on can profit from. In other words, this stage is perfect for Danilo Di Luca (LPR Brakes). The defending Giro champion thrives on this kind of finish, and his explosiveness on the shorter climbs will be the clincher here. The other likely result is a breakaway win, because the sprinters' teams know they can't win on a finish like this, and therefore will not chase down the breaks. However, the big men of this year's Giro should be looking to put time into each other early on, so I suspect the teams with GC contenders will keep the race together over the last 10 km, before all hell breaks loose on the climb.

Stage 3: Catania - Milazzo



Aside from the initial climbing (which results from the Giro taking an inland route around Mt. Etna) this is absolutely a sprinters' stage. The almost completely flat last 120 km should give the sprinters' teams plenty of time to chase down the early morning breakaway and set up their lead-out trains for the finish. Although I'm not convinced of the quality of the team surrounding him, my pick for this stage is Mark Cavendish (High Road). He's clearly on good form after winning the Scheldeprijs Vlaanderen and two stages of the Tour de Romandie, and has a very fast finishing kick.

Stage 4: Pizzo Calabro - Catanzaro-Lungomare




Stage 4 is the first Stage on the Italian mainland and provides early on a taste of the climbing to come. However, the majority of the stage is fairly flat, and the sole climb that comes late on, the climb to the town of Catanzaro, averages just 3.1% - not too hard for the sprinters. I reckon that Daniele Bennati (Liquigas) will win this stage. I think his team will be able to crank up the pace on the climb and set him up better than High Road will for Cavendish.

Stage 5: Belvedere Marittimo - Contursi Terme




This stage is very similar to Stage 2, in that it has a fairly undulating profile and a short climb up to the finish. However, the climbing in this stage is significantly easier, and the finish is suited more to a rider like the World Road Race Champion Paolo Bettini (Quick.Step) who can take the 6.9% grade of the 3-kilometer climb in his stride. Bettini also has the benefit of a strong team which is suited to this type of short climb racing because of its presence as a major force in the Northern Classics.

Stage 6: Potenza - Peschici




If it weren't for a very slight uptick in the profile right at the end, I would call this an easy stage for the sprinters. However, because of the very short but sharp climb, I favor Igor Astarloa, or a similar rider to win this stage. Although Astarloa hasn't been a very large figure in races since he was World Champion in 2004, he has a good finishing kick on the climbs - you have to to win La Fleche Wallonne. Another good pick would be the always aggressive CSC veteran Jens Voigt, or, once again, Paolo Bettini.

Stage 7: Vasto - Pescoconstanzo






This will be the first real mountain test of the 2008 Giro. Although the summit finish is not a terribly difficult one, it will be an important psychological test for all of the major contenders. The time triallists like Menchov and Kloden must keep their cool and not lose more than two minutes here. As far as the stage winner is concerned, there are almost innumberable possibilities because of the number of high-quality climbers in this race. However, I would give the edge to Riccadro Ricco (Saunier Duval) winning ahead of Alberto Contador (Astana). I think those two will be the main animators of the race in the mountains, and their dynamic climbing styles will demolish the rest of the field. Don't discount Gilberto Simoni (Serramenti PVC) or Leonardo Piepoli (Saunier Duval), among others.

Stage 8: Rivisondoli - Tivoli





Yet another flattish stage that the sprinters would say has been "spoiled" by adding in that little climb at the end. I've pretty much gone over the riders who will have a good shot at winning this kind of stage: Di Luca, Bettini, Astarloa, and Voigt. This Stage, however, actually has a decent potential for breakaways. A tired peloton after the first mountain stage might not be inclined to chase a harmless break that builds up a bid lead early on. One rider to look out for could be Christian Vande Velde (Slipstream). The Slipstream team will be looking to put a lot of riders in breaks throughout the race to hopefully get a stage win, and this is a pretty good stage for Vande Velde to target.

Stage 9: Civitavecchia - San Vincenzo




No question about it, this is one of the flattest Stages of this year's Giro. There is almost nothing to discuss when it comes to the profile, it is, quite simply, flat (with a few hills for good measure). This kind of Stage seems like the kind that Cavendish will enjoy greatly, even if he doesn't get a perfect lead-out. He will be challenged by Zabel, McEwen (unless he drops out on Stage 7), and Bennati, but I suspect the Brit will come out on top. His sprint speed won't have been dulled much by the climbing, and he'll still have a good number of teammates willing to work for him. However, don't discount McEwen, because if there is any stage he has a chance of winning, this is probably it.


I'll do Part 3 after the TTT tomorrow. Forzi squadri Milram e Lampre!
-Ben

Overall Giro Preview

Since the Giro is a huge race, and this year's edition is especially exceptional, I'm breaking my Preview up into four parts. The first part (which you're reading right now) is an overall preview; I'll give my take on the favorites for the maglia rosa (GC), the maglia verde (Mountains), the maglia ciclamino (Points), and the maglia bianca (Young Rider), and how I see the race unfolding overall. The second part will cover Stages 1-9, the third, Stages 10-16, and the final part, Stages 17-21.

Map:


Overall Profile:



This year's Giro begins with a short 28.5 km Team Time Trial though the Sicilian city of Palermo, then crosses the island to Agrigento, and then Stage 3 crosses back to the finish in Milazzo. The first seven stages are all fairly difficult as early stages go, and should serve to create a few gaps before the first true foray into the mountains on Stage 7. The summit finish at Pescocostanzo in the Appenines, following a long trek up the peninsula, will give the climbers a chance to pull back most of the time they lost in the opening TTT. The first few stages will also serve to set up the race for the maglia ciclamino of the Points classification, which should be a battle between High Road's Mark Cavendish, Milram's Erik Zabel, and Liquigas' Daniele Bennati. All have shown good form in the early part of the season, although I think Bennati's combination of speed and consistency will triumph over Zabel's experience and Cavendish's pure sprinting talent. While normally I would give Robbie McEwen (Silence-Lotto) a good chance of winning, his lack of consistent results in the past year has raised doubts for me about whether he can still compete for a Points jersey, which requires consistency and attentiveness every day of the race.

The Individual Time Trial on Stage 10 should once again bring the more powerful all-rounders and pure time triallists to the fore. They have to make the most of their opportunity, though, as the first Dolomitian mountain stage comes on Stage 14, after 3 stages that look very good for the sprinters. Before that first day in the Italian Alps, we should have a very good idea of the eventual winner of the maglia ciclamino. Stage 14 undulates for the first 140 kilometers before the riders hit the steep ramps of the Passo Manghen; once over the climb they have a 10 kilometer descent before a short flat section leading up the the climb of the Alpe di Pampeago. The Pampeago is a short climb at just 7.7 km, but is very steep (9.8% average grade). The pure climbers will hit out hard, but only on the last climb, because they know what is to come the next day. It does, however, seem a climb tailor made for the attacking style of one Alberto Contador (Astana)

The queen stage of this year's Giro is the 15th Stage, from Arabba to the summit of the Passo Fedaia (the Marmolada). It features five absolutely massive climbs; the Passo Pordoi, the Passo San Pellegrino, the Passo Giau, the Passo Falzarego, and the final climb of the Marmolada. The climbers will once again be on the attack, but also must be wary because the next day is the brutal Mountain Time Trial up the Kronplatz. The climber that can put the most time into his rivals on these three stages will be in an excellent position to win the race overall.

Following two moderate stages through the Alpine valleys, the Giro the three final stages will (hopefully) all prove critical to determining the overall winner. The summit finish at Monte Pora stage 19 is the last of the Giro, and will be the penultimate chance for the climbers to gain time before the last-day time trial. Once again, the stiff gradient of the climb should give us a great battle between, perhaps, the two young stars of the mountains - Alberto Contador and Riccardo Ricco (Saunier Duval). The final mountain stage from Rovetta to Tirano crosses the Giro's highest peak, the formidable Passo Gavia, which tops out at 2618 meters and is well over 20 kilometers in length. The Gavia is followed, after a long descent, by the equally fearsome Passo del Mortirolo, a 12.8-kilometer monster that averages a 10.8% in grade. Following a 15-kilometer drag up to Aprica, the riders plunge down into Tirano, where, in all likelyhood, a very nervous climber will put on the maglia rosa before the time triallists try to rip it from him the following day.

Hopefully we will not know the overall winner before the start of the 23.5-kilometer time trial from Cesano Maderno to the center of Milan, but it certainly is possible. The sheer amount of climbing in this year's Giro should give plenty of opportunities for the mountain men to put time into the rouleurs. The time trial course, however, is completely flat, and if a good time trial rider is within a minute of Contador (I expect him to have taken the lead by this point through constant attacks in the mountains), the race will still be up for grabs.

My Predictions:
GC: Alberto Contador (Astana)
KOM: Alberto Contador
Points: Daniele Bennati (Liquigas)
Young Rider: Riccardo Ricco (Saunier Duval)

Part 2 will be along later.