Predictions Part #2

Stage 19:
The queen stage of this year's Vuelta, a massive one to the Alto de Abantos. The Abantos is not a consistently difficult climb, but the first couple of k's have grades of 10-19%. If Carlos Sastre (CSC) thinks he can win this Vuelta, that is where he needs to attack, as much of the rest of the climb is much more suited to malliot amarillo Denis Menchov (Rabobank). He is the leader, and it is up to everyone else to attack him. I expect a pure climber of some order (probably Sastre) to win the stage while Menchov will be well protected by his Rabo' teammates throughout the stage.



Stage 20:
The Vuelta's final time trial is a short (20km/12 miles) pancake flat hammerfest around Collado Villalba. Looking through the strong time triallists left in this field, there are only two men who I can see winning this stage: Denis Menchov and Cadel Evans (Predictor-Lotto). Menchov already has a couple of stages in the bag, so he may well sit back a tad, knowing that he will win the race overall the next day in Madrid. Evans, on the other hand, will surely be looking for a stage win, so he can take something from this Vuelta. So probably Evans for me, even though I'm sure he's tired after a long season.


Stage 21:
The final stage is a pretty flat parade into Madrid. A short stage at just over 100 kilometers (60 miles), it will be a battle between Alessandro Petacchi (Milram) and Daniele Bennati (Lampre) on the same straight where Tom Boonen won the Worlds two years ago. Petacchi for the stage, but Bennati will win the points jersey.

Final predictions:

Overall:
1)Denis Menchov
2)Cadel Evans
3)Carlos Sastre

KOM:
1)Carlos Sastre
2)Denis Menchov
3)Jurgen Van Goolen (Discovery Channel)

Points:
1)Daniele Bennati
2)Alessandro Petacchi
3)Erik Zabel (Milram)

Combination:
1)Denis Menchov
2)Cadel Evans
3)Carlos Sastre

Teams:
1)Euskalel-Euskadi
2)Team CSC
3)Caisse d'Epargne

I'll try to do a cyclocross season preview soon...hopefully by Monday.

Vuelta Rest Day #2 Wrap-up and Predictions

A fairly nondescript week of racing in la Vuelta, lots of Spanish sun and short climbs. Ale-Jet won two stages and was followed by three breakaway wins from teams which have so far had poor Vueltas: T-Mobile, Disco, and Euskaltel. The heavily backloaded Vuelta parcours (its all going down in the last 4 stages) has meant only one attack by a GC rider (Sammy Sanchez of Euskaltel) whereas normally, these middle stages contain the epic mountains where the Vuelta is decided. The level-headed Russian Denis Menchov seems to be bulletproof overall, limiting his losses to Sanchez to just 41" and being very attentive on the road to Torre-Pacheco when Caisse suddenly hit the front in the last 40 ks and blew the peloton to pieces. Menchov was right where he needed to be, and didn't waste any energy.

My predictions:

Stage 16:

An undualting stage which will probably end in either a big sprint finish (If the sprinters can get over the Puerto de los Rehoyos within a minute of the leaders) or a small group dash from a long breakaway. I'm taking Petacchi if its a sprint, and I'm not even going to try to predict a specific rider to win from a long break. All I'll say is that Liquigas has been underperforming a bit in this Vuelta....Stage 17:

A pretty much pancake flat stage which will almost certainly end in a sprint finish with Bennati battling Petacchi for the points jersey. One of those men will probably win the stage, as Lampre and Milram respectively will chase down all of the breaks and they have proven themselves the two best sprinters in the race.

Stage 18:

A tough stage before the final foray into the mountains. The GC contenders will be keeping their powder dry for the fireworks on the Abantos the next day. Probably a long breakaway will win the day with a bunch of strong climbers. My pick is Damiano Cunego or Christian Vande Velde.



I'll preview the last 3 stages (19, 20, and 21) tomorrow.