The queen stage of this year's Vuelta, a massive one to the Alto de Abantos. The Abantos is not a consistently difficult climb, but the first couple of k's have grades of 10-19%. If Carlos Sastre (CSC) thinks he can win this Vuelta, that is where he needs to attack, as much of the rest of the climb is much more suited to malliot amarillo Denis Menchov (Rabobank). He is the leader, and it is up to everyone else to attack him. I expect a pure climber of some order (probably Sastre) to win the stage while Menchov will be well protected by his Rabo' teammates throughout the stage.
Stage 20:
The Vuelta's final time trial is a short (20km/12 miles) pancake flat hammerfest around Collado Villalba. Looking through the strong time triallists left in this field, there are only two men who I can see winning this stage: Denis Menchov and Cadel Evans (Predictor-Lotto). Menchov already has a couple of stages in the bag, so he may well sit back a tad, knowing that he will win the race overall the next day in Madrid. Evans, on the other hand, will surely be looking for a stage win, so he can take something from this Vuelta. So probably Evans for me, even though I'm sure he's tired after a long season.
Stage 21:
The final stage is a pretty flat parade into Madrid. A short stage at just over 100 kilometers (60 miles), it will be a battle between Alessandro Petacchi (Milram) and Daniele Bennati (Lampre) on the same straight where Tom Boonen won the Worlds two years ago. Petacchi for the stage, but Bennati will win the points jersey.
Final predictions:
Overall:
1)Denis Menchov
2)Cadel Evans
3)Carlos Sastre
KOM:
1)Carlos Sastre
2)Denis Menchov
3)Jurgen Van Goolen (Discovery Channel)
Points:
1)Daniele Bennati
2)Alessandro Petacchi
3)Erik Zabel (Milram)
Combination:
1)Denis Menchov
2)Cadel Evans
3)Carlos Sastre
Teams:
1)Euskalel-Euskadi
2)Team CSC
3)Caisse d'Epargne
I'll try to do a cyclocross season preview soon...hopefully by Monday.
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