2008 Tour de France Preview

We're about seven months away from Le Grand Depart of the Tour de France 2008, so I decided to write up a short preview. I'll go much more in-depth when the Tour is closer and the full details are announced. Expect a Preliminary Giro d'Italia preview as well in a few weeks, once the route is announced. Going by recent Giro routes, its going to be excellent.

The Route of the 2008 Tour de France.

When I first saw the route of the 2008 Tour, I was very disappointed. Only two serious summit finishes, no Mont Ventoux, and no Plateau de Beille, Luz Ardiden, or Pla d'Adet. Even this afternoon I was looking at the route and was distinctly displeased with it. However, I have come to see the benefits of next year's route. For one, it gives my man Alessandro Petacchi several more chances to win Tour stages. Also, the Tour includes several arduous stages through the Massif Central, which could give breakaways a good chance to take a stage or two in the opening week. Most importantly, the backloaded nature of the route means that we will probably not know the destiny of the final yellow jersey until the end of the stage to l'Alpe d'Huez, at the earliest, and probably after the final Time Trial. I'm assuming, of course, that Alberto Contador or Damiano Cunego doesn't launch a devastating attack on the first big mountain stage to the top of the Hautacam climb in the Pyrenees. You may ask why I assume this, and its simple, really. I suspect the field for next year's Tour will be one of the deepest in years, and as such no rider would dare putting all of his cards on the table on the first mountain stage.


Week One: Le Grand Depart

Next year's Tour starts in the cycling homeland of France, Brittany, the home region of Tour legend and five-time winner Bernard "The Badger" Hinault. Although the first stages are fairly flat, the contenders will have to be wary of Brittany's famous winds - a rider who is caught out during crosswinds could see himself losing anywhere from one to five minutes on a single stage. The fourth stage is the first big test: an individual time trial around the city of Cholet. This is an opportunity for a strong time triallist like Cadel Evans, Michael Rogers, or Vladimir Karpets to throw down the gauntlet and put serious time into the climbers before the first foray into the mountains. A short stage as Tour Time Trials go, at just 29 km, it still offers a really powerful man in the mold of Miguel Indurain a perfect chance to seize the yellow jersey. The next four stages are undulating or flat south and then west across the Massif Central to the foot of the Pyrenees.


Week Two: Into the Mountains

Col de Peyresourde - 13.2 km @ 7.1%

Col d’Aspin - 12.1 km @ 6.6%

The ninth stage of the 2008 Tour de France is the first of five mountain stages. As Tour mountain stages go, it is only moderately difficult. However it is a very long stage at 222 km, and after several long and probably hot days (remember, it is July) through the center of France, this stage will really hurt the riders' legs. A strong breakaway group will probably win the stage after a crazy chase down the descent of the Col d'Aspin. The other major possibility is that one rider, perhaps Christophe Moreau, will go hunting for King of the Mountains points today, and win the stage as a result. The major contenders will sit back and keep their powder dry for the next stage.

Col du Tourmalet - 17.7 km @ 7.5%

Hautacam - 14,2 km @ 7.2%

Stage 10 will be a critical stage. If any of the climbers have aspirations of winning overall, they must strike here. However, they must measure their efforts carefully because there are still many battles yet to come. Even though it is a short stage at just 154 kilometers, it features two very well known climbs. The final climb of Hautacam is where Lance Armstrong vanquished Marco Pantani and Jose Maria Jiminez in the 2000 Tour. The Col du Tourmalet is the most legendary of all the Pyreneean climbs, and the first mountain pass ever crossed by the Tour de France, way back in 1910. Even now it is feared, an 18-kilometer monster which tops out at well over 2000 meters. One of the Spanish or Italian climbers will probably win this stage, but I would be surprised to see time gaps much larger than a minute to the other major contenders. Hautacam is not an easy climb by any means, but it is not as hard several climbs yet to come.

After a Rest Day in Pau, the riders cross the south of France in four fairly flat stages which will determine the real contenders for the Sprinters' green points jersey before four hard days in the Alps. The peloton will probably let a breakaway win one or two of these stages, but there will still be a furious fight behind for every point on offer.


Week Three: Crunch Time

Col de Larche / Maddalena - 16.1 km @ 4%

Prato Nevoso - 11.1 km @ 7,1%

The third mountain stage of the Tour is a fairly straightforward climb over the Southern Alps up to the Italian town of Prato Nevoso. I wouldn't be surprised if one of the climbers who was caught off guard on the stage to Hautacam blitzed the field and won here. Barring that, It will probably come down to one of the Italian climbers, Cunego or Piepoli, to win the stage.

Col de la Lombarde - 21.2 km @ 7%

Col de la Bonette-Restefond - 26.7 km
@ 6.2%

After a second and final rest day, the Tour riders will venture out from the Italian city of Cuneo, back across the Alps into France on a huge mountain stage. This stage is almost entirely either climbing or descending, but the serious climbing starts about 50 kilometers in, with the huge climb of the Col de la Lombarde. This is immediately followed by an even bigger climb to the high point of the 2008 Tour at 2802 meters, the Col de la Bonnette-Restefond. After the riders cross the summit, they have a fast 22-kilometer descent into the town of Jausiers. The winner of this stage will be the most daring climber with the best descending skills because after claiming the Souvenir Henri Desgrange (a prize awarded to the rider first over the highest mountain in the Tour and named after the race's founder) the leader will still have to contend with a tricky descent to the finish. If Paolo "Il Falco" Salvodelli is within a minute of the leaders at the top of the Bonnette-Restefond, he would be a good bet to win this stage, as he is arguably the best descender int he world.

Col du Galibier - 20.9 km @ 5.6%

Col de la Croix de Fer - 29.2 km @ 5.2%

L’Alpe d’Huez - 13.3 km @ 8.6%

Here it is, at long last. The queen stage of the 2008 Tour de France, from Embrun to the most famous climb in world cycling, L'Alpe d'Huez. The 21 infamous switchback turns of the Alpe will see many a contender fall by the wayside, and could decide the fate of the final yellow jersey. The stage begins with a long undulating section before the riders face the first test of the day, the Col du Galibier. The riders climb it from the "easier" side this year, and descend the harder side. After the Galibier, the peloton will climb the Col de la Croix de Fer (French for "The pass with the iron cross"). The early morning breakaway riders will try to hang on over the Croix de Fer, in hope of snatching a win on the Alpe, as Frank Schleck did in 2006. However, the pace in the peloton will be very high as they come through the town of Bourg d'Oisans at the foot of the Alpe. On the climb the attacks will come thick and fast, with all of the remaining contenders looking to put time into their rivals. It should be an epic stage, and as a result I won't dare to predict who will win it. I do suspect, however, that it will be either one of the Spanish or Italian climbers.

After the queen stage, the riders venture out of the Alps on stage 18, before an undulating stage to Montlucon. These two stages will probably determine the final winner of the green jersey, but the way the competition has gone these past few years, it could all come down to the final sprint on the Champs-Eysees.

The final time trial of the 2008 Tour de France will be the last shakedown of the overall standings before the final day's stage into Paris. If all goes well, we will see a huge battle for the final yellow jersey enacted between Cerilly and Saint-Armond-Montrond. It is a long time trial at 53 kilometers and a good time triallist could make up 2 minutes quite easily. As such, I think this stage, just like the Alpe three days before, could go down as a classic in the history of the Tour.

The final stage into Paris is traditionally quiet until the riders hit the Champs-Elysees for the first of 8 circuits. Everyone has a bit of fun and chats for the first 75 kilometers or so and enjoys their last day of racing together. However, when the first riders hit the bone-shaking cobbles of the Champs, the attacks will start. Lap after lap the sprinters' teams will try to chase down each successive breakaway. Rarely do breaks win on the Champs, and the race will probably come down to a big bunch sprint, with every sprinter in the pack looking for his moment to shine. Hopefully that gentleman will be my man Alessandro Petacchi, but I doubt it :( .

I hope that next year's Tour de France will be an exciting, scintillating, and most importantly drug-free affair. Forza Petacchi and Vive Le Tour!