Paris-Nice Preview Part 1: Prologue - Stage 3

The first big stage race of the season starts Sunday in Paris. Although the field has been hurt a bit by riders concerned about the ramifications of the UCI-ASO feud, there will still be many top class riders on the start line in Amilly tomorrow. Davide Rebellin (Gerolsteiner), Christophe Moreau (Agritubel), Oscar Pereiro (Caisse d'Epargne), Damiano Cunego (Lampre-Fondital), Cadel Evans (Silence-Lotto), Frank Schleck (CSC) and David Millar (Slipstream) will be the main contenders for overall victory, while Thor Hushovd (Credit Agricole) will battle Bernhard Eisel (High Road) and Bradley McGee (CSC) in the sprints. The race is dominated by undulating and moderate mountain stages, in which attacking riders like Stefan Schumacher (Gerolsteiner) and Jens Voigt (CSC) will try to grab an early season win or perhaps the race lead.

Overall Map:


This year's race starts with a short Prologue time trial outside of Paris. The first stage is the only "true" sprinters' stage, and is followed by a pair of difficult stages which will probably have breakaway winners, but will certainly impact the overall classification. The queen stage is the summit finish on Mont Ventoux, and it will probably go a long way to deciding the final winner. The last three stages are difficult, including the traditional final day's mountainous race around the city of Nice.


Prologue Map:


Prologue Profile:


The Prologue time trial is a completely flat, short test around Amilly. It is not very technical either, meaning the best time will probably be somewhere between 5:00 and 5:10, for an average speed of about 55 km/h. The favorite has to be the British Time Trial Champion and past Tour Prologue winner David Millar, although Thor Hushovd has been a good prologue rider as well.


Stage 1 Map:


Stage 1 Profile:


This is the only clear opportunity for the sprinters to take a stage. As such the sprinters' teams will probably take command and close down any dangerous early breaks. They'll reel whatever group does escape in by about 5k to go and we'll have a typical sprint finish. I give Hushovd the edge in a sprint because he seems to be able to perform at a high level throughout the season, and its important for Credit Agricole to do well this year because they are looking for a new sponsor.


Stage 2 Map:


Stage 2 Profile:


Although the first 130 km of Stage 2 are fairly flat, the latter part of the stage is very demanding, and could provide a serious test before the queen stage two days later. A group of strong climbers will probably escape on the early slopes of the Champ Juin and survive until the finish in a small group sprint. As such I'm picking one of my favorite riders, Lampre's Damiano Cungeo, to send out a warning to the other GC men before the Ventoux.


Stage 3 Map:


Stage 3 Profile:


Another demanding stage, this time deep into the Massif Central which the previous day's stage only skirted. The major contenders will keep their powder dry and watch each other carefully because the Ventoux is the next day and they will pay for any huge efforts on this stage. The winner will probably be a solid climber who doesn't have a big shot at the overall - a rider like Yaroslav Popovych (Silence-Lotto) or Jens Voigt. Bobby Julich (CSC) may also have a chance to win here.


The Prologue will be shown (tape-delayed) on Versus from 5 to 7 PM EDT on Sunday (3/9).

Forza Cunego e Petacchi!
-Ben