Milano-San Remo Preview

The biggest race of the season so far starts tomorrow on the Piazzo Duomo in Milan. At 298 kilometers, Milano-San Remo is by far the longest of the Monuments, and should produce a huge battle, not only between the sprinters, but also with some of the strong breakaway riders like Paolo Bettini (Quick.Step) and Danilo Di Luca (LPR). The percorso of La Primavera has been slightly altered this year due to road construction; a new climb has been included in the form of Le Manie, a 4.7 kilometer climb at an average of 6.7%, and the finish has been shifted from the traditional boulevard of the Via Roma to the slightly wider Lungomare Italo Calvino, which is right on the Ligurian seaside.

Overall Route Map:

Overall Route Profile:

The overall route is essentially the same as it is every year. After a long, flat, first 100 kilometers, the race tackles its first climb in the form of the very gradual Passo del Turchino. After the fast descent off the Turchino, the riders have about 40 kilometers of flat or undulation riding along the Ligurian coast before Le Manie. Unfortunately, despite the difficulty of the climb, its distance from the finish (nearly 100 kilometers) will prevent it from being a real springboard to victory. Le Manie is followed by another 60k of undulating roads until the first of the two most crucial climbs in Milano-San Remo, the Cipressa. Although it does not usually create the winning break, the Cipressa does serve to narrow out the field a bit; some of the pre-race favorites may be dropped on the climb, and there have also been crashes on the descent in the past. The most important climb in Milano-San Remo, however, is the last one, the Poggio (also known as the Poggio di Sanremo). It's a fairly shallow and short climb at just 3.7% over only 3.7 kilometers, but Di Luca and Bettini, among others, will be firing on all cylinders up the Poggio. If a small group can stay away over the top of the climb, they have a chance (albeit a small one) of winning; Bettini won from a break in 2003 and Filippo Pozzato (Liquigas) barely held on ahead of Alessandro Petacchi (Milram) two years ago. This year, however, the race looks destined for a bunch sprint, not only because there are several top-class sprinters whose teams will chase down every last breakaway attempt, but also because the finish has been altered. There are about 500 additional meters of flat (enough time for a charging peloton to eliminate a 5" to 10" lead) that have been added, giving the sprinters' teams even more space to chase down any breaks that survive over the Poggio.

Final Ks Map:

Final Ks Profile:


Predictions:
It must be said that, as a huge Alessandro Petacchi fan, I am clearly biased in my predictions for La Primavera. I think that the Ale-Jet has a fantastic chance to capture his second win in Milano-San Remo tomorrow, and I'm surprised how much the media are, in my opinion, underrating him. The popular favorite is Rabobank's Oscar Freire after his two stage wins in Tirreno-Adriatico. Tom Boonen (Quick.Step) and Thor Hushovd (Credit Agricole) should also have a good chance, although Hushovd will not have the same team support as the other big sprinters. Robbie McEwen (Silence-Lotto) seems to be getting a bit on in years, and has never really been a consistently great finisher in MSR. Lampre's hopes in the sprint will rest on Danilo Napolitano, while Barloworld will have a three-pronged attack with Robbie Hunter, Enrico Gasparotto, and Baden Cooke.
The possible breakaway winners are led by the World Road Champion Bettini and LPR's Di Luca. Gerolsteiner's Stefan Schumacher may also be a major animator on the Poggio, and Alessandro Ballan will be at the sharp end of the race for Lampre. Former World Champion Igor Astarloa (Milram) may be given a bit of a free role if Petacchi is not feeling up to his best, but the team with the biggest set of breakaway threats is CSC. Frank Schleck, Fabian Cancellara and Stuart O'Grady could all be on the attack on the Poggio, as O'Grady seems to have lost a bit of his sprinting sharpness.
My pick is still Alessandro Petacchi. I think Ale-Jet has the experience, the team, and the sprinting ability to win tomorrow on the Lungomare Italo Calvino.

Forza Petacchi e squadri Milram!
-Ben