Map:
Overall Profile:
This year's Giro begins with a short 28.5 km Team Time Trial though the Sicilian city of Palermo, then crosses the island to Agrigento, and then Stage 3 crosses back to the finish in Milazzo. The first seven stages are all fairly difficult as early stages go, and should serve to create a few gaps before the first true foray into the mountains on Stage 7. The summit finish at Pescocostanzo in the Appenines, following a long trek up the peninsula, will give the climbers a chance to pull back most of the time they lost in the opening TTT. The first few stages will also serve to set up the race for the maglia ciclamino of the Points classification, which should be a battle between High Road's Mark Cavendish, Milram's Erik Zabel, and Liquigas' Daniele Bennati. All have shown good form in the early part of the season, although I think Bennati's combination of speed and consistency will triumph over Zabel's experience and Cavendish's pure sprinting talent. While normally I would give Robbie McEwen (Silence-Lotto) a good chance of winning, his lack of consistent results in the past year has raised doubts for me about whether he can still compete for a Points jersey, which requires consistency and attentiveness every day of the race.
The Individual Time Trial on Stage 10 should once again bring the more powerful all-rounders and pure time triallists to the fore. They have to make the most of their opportunity, though, as the first Dolomitian mountain stage comes on Stage 14, after 3 stages that look very good for the sprinters. Before that first day in the Italian Alps, we should have a very good idea of the eventual winner of the maglia ciclamino. Stage 14 undulates for the first 140 kilometers before the riders hit the steep ramps of the Passo Manghen; once over the climb they have a 10 kilometer descent before a short flat section leading up the the climb of the Alpe di Pampeago. The Pampeago is a short climb at just 7.7 km, but is very steep (9.8% average grade). The pure climbers will hit out hard, but only on the last climb, because they know what is to come the next day. It does, however, seem a climb tailor made for the attacking style of one Alberto Contador (Astana)
The queen stage of this year's Giro is the 15th Stage, from Arabba to the summit of the Passo Fedaia (the Marmolada). It features five absolutely massive climbs; the Passo Pordoi, the Passo San Pellegrino, the Passo Giau, the Passo Falzarego, and the final climb of the Marmolada. The climbers will once again be on the attack, but also must be wary because the next day is the brutal Mountain Time Trial up the Kronplatz. The climber that can put the most time into his rivals on these three stages will be in an excellent position to win the race overall.
Following two moderate stages through the Alpine valleys, the Giro the three final stages will (hopefully) all prove critical to determining the overall winner. The summit finish at Monte Pora stage 19 is the last of the Giro, and will be the penultimate chance for the climbers to gain time before the last-day time trial. Once again, the stiff gradient of the climb should give us a great battle between, perhaps, the two young stars of the mountains - Alberto Contador and Riccardo Ricco (Saunier Duval). The final mountain stage from Rovetta to Tirano crosses the Giro's highest peak, the formidable Passo Gavia, which tops out at 2618 meters and is well over 20 kilometers in length. The Gavia is followed, after a long descent, by the equally fearsome Passo del Mortirolo, a 12.8-kilometer monster that averages a 10.8% in grade. Following a 15-kilometer drag up to Aprica, the riders plunge down into Tirano, where, in all likelyhood, a very nervous climber will put on the maglia rosa before the time triallists try to rip it from him the following day.
Hopefully we will not know the overall winner before the start of the 23.5-kilometer time trial from Cesano Maderno to the center of Milan, but it certainly is possible. The sheer amount of climbing in this year's Giro should give plenty of opportunities for the mountain men to put time into the rouleurs. The time trial course, however, is completely flat, and if a good time trial rider is within a minute of Contador (I expect him to have taken the lead by this point through constant attacks in the mountains), the race will still be up for grabs.
My Predictions:
GC: Alberto Contador (Astana)
KOM: Alberto Contador
Points: Daniele Bennati (Liquigas)
Young Rider: Riccardo Ricco (Saunier Duval)
Part 2 will be along later.
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