Stage 17: Sondrio - Locarno
This is the final stage of the Giro that looks like one for the sprinters, and I have to suspect that it will be a battle between the race's two top fastmen so far, Daniele Bennati (Lampre) and Mark Cavendish (High Road). Bennati has one stage more than the Brit so far, and I fancy him to get another tomorrow. He's been very fast so far and has the gift of a lot more experience than Cavendish, which I think will have helped him get through the high mountains in better shape.
Stage 18: Mendrisio - Varese
Another day of transition before three huge days to settle the General Classification, this one ends on another short climb. So far, these finishes have been dominated by the young Italian Ricardo Ricco (Saunier Duval), however, this climb averages just 2.5% over 5 kilometers, not exactly the steep finish that Ricco would favor. Still, the Saunier Duval rider knows that he needs to pull back time on the maglia rosa Alberto Contador whenever and wherever he can, and I think he will win this stage, and with the time bonuses, close the gap to his Spanish rival, setting up a huge three days of mano y mano combat in the Dolomites and the roads of Milan.
Stage 19: Legnano - Monte Pora
Stage 19 is an epic mountain stage and a fitting final summit finish for this year's Giro. Three massive climbs will shatter the peloton, and leave only the strongest men at the head of the race at the top of Monte Pora. So far the mountain stages have been dominated by CSF Navigare's Emmanuele Sella and the aforementioned Ricardo Ricco. However, I think the man who will break out of his shell on the big stage will be Caisse d'Epargne's Venezuelan enigma, Jose Rujano. Rujano has been getting stronger and stronger, and I think he will not be chased down by the big teams, who will be too concerned with battling each other. One other man to watch will be Serramenti's Gilberto Simoni, who also has an outside chance at the final maglia rosa.
Stage 20: Rovetta - Tirano
Another monster mountain stage, and the last chance for the climbers to get in their big attacks before the final day time trial. Two huge climbs, the Passo Gavia and Passo Mortirolo, are followed by a long uphill drag to Aprica and a fast descent into Tirano. This type of stage, in my opinion, favors a strong climber who can also descend well. In other words, LPR's Paolo "Il Falco" Salvodelli; he is far enough down on the overall classification to be given a large lead over the climbs, and his descending skills should be enough to give him the win. More importantly, though, watch for a big battle on the Mortirolo between Contador and Ricco, with the Italian gaining little time over his Spanish rival by the stage's end.
Stage 21: Cesano Maderno - Milano
The last stage of the Giro will hopefully be a tense fight down to the final meters, probably between Contador and Ricco, the two non-time triallists. In that battle, I give the advantage to the Spaniard, because of his performance when it counted in the Tour's final Time Trial last year. There are two riders who I think have a good chance to win Sunday, Marzio Bruseghin (Lampre), Denis Menchov (Rabobank). Both are good time trial riders who are on good form for this Giro. Of the two, I think Bruseghin will triumph, both because of his win in the first long Time Trial and because a great ride in the TT could push him ahead of Gilberto Simoni and onto the 3rd step of the podium.
That's all for the Giro. If I have time, I'll try to write up a Dauphine preview in the next few weeks. Until then...
Forzi squadri Lampre e Milram!
~Ben
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