Giro Preview Part 2: Stages 1-9

The first nine Stages this year are fairly difficult and should see a few gaps open up in the GC before the serious mountain stages in the Dolomites. The Team Time Trial should give an early indication of which teams are ready to defend the maglia rosa, and which ones are not.

Stage 1: Palermo - Palermo TTT




As you can see, the TTT is basically going to be a pan-flat speed contest. Two of the strongest time trialling teams in the race, Astana and Slipstream are the big favorites for this first Stage. Astana will be looking to show that their overall challenged is solid, and one of the characteristics of Johan Bruyneel teams is their strength in the Team test. Slipstream has a number of talented riders, and they very much want to prove that they are deserving of their wild card selection to the Giro. However. I reckon that the depth of Astana will be the clincher for the Kazakh-sponsored squad.

Stage 2: Cefalu - Agrigento




Stage 2 is an undulating ride across the island of Sicily, and finishes with a short 3.7-kilometer climb up to the finish in Agrigento. This finish is the kind that an aggressive rider with good climbing ability and who wants to gain time early on can profit from. In other words, this stage is perfect for Danilo Di Luca (LPR Brakes). The defending Giro champion thrives on this kind of finish, and his explosiveness on the shorter climbs will be the clincher here. The other likely result is a breakaway win, because the sprinters' teams know they can't win on a finish like this, and therefore will not chase down the breaks. However, the big men of this year's Giro should be looking to put time into each other early on, so I suspect the teams with GC contenders will keep the race together over the last 10 km, before all hell breaks loose on the climb.

Stage 3: Catania - Milazzo



Aside from the initial climbing (which results from the Giro taking an inland route around Mt. Etna) this is absolutely a sprinters' stage. The almost completely flat last 120 km should give the sprinters' teams plenty of time to chase down the early morning breakaway and set up their lead-out trains for the finish. Although I'm not convinced of the quality of the team surrounding him, my pick for this stage is Mark Cavendish (High Road). He's clearly on good form after winning the Scheldeprijs Vlaanderen and two stages of the Tour de Romandie, and has a very fast finishing kick.

Stage 4: Pizzo Calabro - Catanzaro-Lungomare




Stage 4 is the first Stage on the Italian mainland and provides early on a taste of the climbing to come. However, the majority of the stage is fairly flat, and the sole climb that comes late on, the climb to the town of Catanzaro, averages just 3.1% - not too hard for the sprinters. I reckon that Daniele Bennati (Liquigas) will win this stage. I think his team will be able to crank up the pace on the climb and set him up better than High Road will for Cavendish.

Stage 5: Belvedere Marittimo - Contursi Terme




This stage is very similar to Stage 2, in that it has a fairly undulating profile and a short climb up to the finish. However, the climbing in this stage is significantly easier, and the finish is suited more to a rider like the World Road Race Champion Paolo Bettini (Quick.Step) who can take the 6.9% grade of the 3-kilometer climb in his stride. Bettini also has the benefit of a strong team which is suited to this type of short climb racing because of its presence as a major force in the Northern Classics.

Stage 6: Potenza - Peschici




If it weren't for a very slight uptick in the profile right at the end, I would call this an easy stage for the sprinters. However, because of the very short but sharp climb, I favor Igor Astarloa, or a similar rider to win this stage. Although Astarloa hasn't been a very large figure in races since he was World Champion in 2004, he has a good finishing kick on the climbs - you have to to win La Fleche Wallonne. Another good pick would be the always aggressive CSC veteran Jens Voigt, or, once again, Paolo Bettini.

Stage 7: Vasto - Pescoconstanzo






This will be the first real mountain test of the 2008 Giro. Although the summit finish is not a terribly difficult one, it will be an important psychological test for all of the major contenders. The time triallists like Menchov and Kloden must keep their cool and not lose more than two minutes here. As far as the stage winner is concerned, there are almost innumberable possibilities because of the number of high-quality climbers in this race. However, I would give the edge to Riccadro Ricco (Saunier Duval) winning ahead of Alberto Contador (Astana). I think those two will be the main animators of the race in the mountains, and their dynamic climbing styles will demolish the rest of the field. Don't discount Gilberto Simoni (Serramenti PVC) or Leonardo Piepoli (Saunier Duval), among others.

Stage 8: Rivisondoli - Tivoli





Yet another flattish stage that the sprinters would say has been "spoiled" by adding in that little climb at the end. I've pretty much gone over the riders who will have a good shot at winning this kind of stage: Di Luca, Bettini, Astarloa, and Voigt. This Stage, however, actually has a decent potential for breakaways. A tired peloton after the first mountain stage might not be inclined to chase a harmless break that builds up a bid lead early on. One rider to look out for could be Christian Vande Velde (Slipstream). The Slipstream team will be looking to put a lot of riders in breaks throughout the race to hopefully get a stage win, and this is a pretty good stage for Vande Velde to target.

Stage 9: Civitavecchia - San Vincenzo




No question about it, this is one of the flattest Stages of this year's Giro. There is almost nothing to discuss when it comes to the profile, it is, quite simply, flat (with a few hills for good measure). This kind of Stage seems like the kind that Cavendish will enjoy greatly, even if he doesn't get a perfect lead-out. He will be challenged by Zabel, McEwen (unless he drops out on Stage 7), and Bennati, but I suspect the Brit will come out on top. His sprint speed won't have been dulled much by the climbing, and he'll still have a good number of teammates willing to work for him. However, don't discount McEwen, because if there is any stage he has a chance of winning, this is probably it.


I'll do Part 3 after the TTT tomorrow. Forzi squadri Milram e Lampre!
-Ben